Huge list here, so we’re going to dive in pretty immediately.
As a reminder, our top group is our main group to key in on and our second group is more tournament flier/high risk-high reward type play.
Without further ado, here’s our top group:
Scottie is, of course, our top option and might have the most elite course history of anyone here. T-7, win, win over the last three years and he looks to three-peat. The only things working against him are price and potential to be extremely popular. If his clicks are depressed, it’s likely due to his astronomic salary, which might work in our favor if we plug in enough value.
Justin Thomas is likely to be enormous chalk, but course history tracks and he’s been off to a torrid start to the year, finishing 3rd at Hero in late November, 3rd at the AMEX and was in 6th last week at AT&T before they cancelled the final round. His worst finish at WM Phoenix the past five years? T-13. His other four finishes in that time span are 3, T-3, T-8 & 4. Elite, elite, elite course history at a place where that actually holds water.
Bezuidenhout has really turned his game into something & will likely be overlooked in his price range, especially with Keith Mitchell in the same area. His distance is less than what we like to see, but comparing to last year, he should have enough in the tank to get far enough and has plus accuracy to help the rest of his game. At his price range, we don’t need the world from him to pay off.
Kirt Kitayama can absolutely bomb the ball and at a bomber’s type course, that fits. If he doesn’t get too wild off the tee, he can build on his T-23 here last year. He’s quietly been very good in 2024, making all 3 of his cuts and placing 29th at Sentry, 24th at Sony and was in 39th last week at AT&T before the final round cancellation.
Keith Mitchell is a plus accuracy, big hitter, which is a huge advantage here and has a top 10 this year.
Aaron Rai made the cut here last year, but has middling results so far this year, but has made 2/3 cuts, although his finishes have left a lot to be desired. Still, a bargain price at just $7,100 and elite accuracy and gets far enough down the fairway to make a difference.
Erik van Rooyen is also just $7,100, is 4/4 cuts this year, with three of those four finishes coming inside the top 25.
Our next group is our more tournament flier type plays that are going to be hit or miss. Exercise caution.
I wonder if people are going to play Glover seeing how cheap he is, and given his success last year. He does have decent course history here, making the cut the past 3 years, but only having a high finish of 37th. His results this year have been mediocre.
Greyson Sigg is interesting based on his high trend and him making the cut here last year. He has a top 20 this year at Amex & he’s just $700 off bare minimum.
Adam Svensson is dirt cheap and probably shouldn’t be. 3/4 made cuts this year. Did miss the cut here last year, for what it’s worth. However, I think his game really matches what the Stadium Course asks for.
I wonder if people are going to chase Corey Conners over Adam Hadwin, but I will take the latter Canadian at a $100 discount. He MC’d at Sony this year, but otherwise has a 14th at Sentry, a 6th at AMEX, a 39th at AT&T last week (again, before final round cancellation) and has made 5/5 cuts the past five years here and the past 3 years he has gotten progressively better - going T-50, T-26, T-10. His game matches very well for this course.
Joel Dahmen has been blistering in his overall game, but can’t make a putt to save his life. He’s just $300 off the minimum and has made the cut the past two years here, although he hasn’t done anything with his finishes. Very much a “sprinkle in some shares” if you’re playing multiple lineups.
Luke List is probably ok, if not uninspiring. He’s been on a cut making tear and for the most part hovering around top 30 finishes. Let the record show that I, for once, said he is ok meaning he will MC and shoot +17 in two rounds. Decent course history here.
Hossler is playing really well. He’s fine. Might be clicked a lot with a recent 14th last week and a 6th at Farmers. He’s also made all three cuts in 2024.
Ghim is riding the wave of a 13th two weeks ago at Farmers. However, the trend isn’t great, Farmers is his only made cut of 2024 and he’s 1/2 on made cuts here, finishing T-49 two years and MC’ing last year. Probably no need to chase him.
Matt Fitzpatrick has a huge price tag for some uninspiring play. He has… ok, course history, making the past two cuts and going T-10 & T-29, but you’d need his ceiling finish to pay off the $9,400. Same case for Sungjae Im, who has much better course history here. If you’re playing them, you’re convinced they’re going to pay you off with a top 5 finish, top 10 at worst.
As always, you can find me on Twitter (@TopherThinks) or shoot me a message here. Let’s have some fun and get 6/6 through.