Valspar Championship: Player Pool
Do we actually have a weather wave?
Usually when I try to lean into a weather wave, it goes completely sideways. I think to think it’s the spirits that overlook DFS just laughing at me and essentially calling me an idiot.
They aren’t wrong, those spirits, but still - it’s cruel to be rude.
Regardless, I do actually think it’s worth noting that Thursday looks pristine and Friday looks absolutely miserable. I am pretty convinced, and mind you - I just look at some apps and a couple websites to get an idea - I’m not trained in meteorology or Florida, so you’ve got to make your own decisions here, but knowing the PGA delaying rounds for the slightest of inconveniences, I find it pretty hard to imagine the afternoon wave on Friday (Thursday morning tee times) will play or play for long. I’m guessing it gets delayed until Saturday/pushed back in some level.
I don’t necessarily think it’s an auto fade for anyone that is an afternoon tee time on Thursday (such as Xander Schauffele) but I think if you’re choosing between a couple golfers that are, say in the $6,000 range, it might be worth considering if you’re really stuck.
Can’t wait to see how those DFS spirits make me look like an ass this week.
I think it’s absolutely hilarious that three of the top five most clicked golfers are 1-2-3 here.
I think Harman, Dahmen, Taylor, McNealy, Glover, Spieth & Rai will all also be double digit clicks, though not as severe as Schauffele, Ghim & Burns.
This field is strong for the Valspar, but weakened in an overall sense, especially with the API and Players happening so recently.
Look, all three are in play, but you’re going to have to be very diligent in how you handle how you play them. There are going to be so many duplicate lineups or having things come down to 2v2’s or 3v3’s in your lineups, you have to deftly navigate your construction - especially if you’re playing single entry or higher stakes builds.
The excellent Cody Main from Establish the Run does a free Twitter thread (you should be following him) and a couple things stood out. Schauffele & Glover are going to be rostered together in 11% of lineups. That’s insane. He projects only 14% of lineups will roster a cumulative of 70% and virtually none under 60%. Only 21.5% of lineups will have a sub $6,000 golfer, and in the next portion of the player pool there are a couple of options, let’s just say you take one of them - you’re immediately different than 80%(!) of the lineups you’re facing. Something to keep in consideration.
This is an outstanding week to get different and accept your losses if they happen, because if any of the chalk fails and you’re just different enough, you could be lapping the entire field.
Anyway, I’m good with all the names you see above, except maybe Min Woo (his peripherals for this course look terrible) and you don’t need me beating the drum for most of them.
A couple I will make a case for:
Brice Garnett - he’s coming off a win at Puerto Rico & a T-35 at the Players, which is similar in what the course asks a golfer to do as Copperhead does. He’s been terrific in putting the ball in the short grass and keeping it in play. He is somehow only getting 2-3% in clicks at a depressed price.
Jimmy Stanger - 38th at Mexico, 35th at Cognizant, 3rd in Puerto Rico & 35th last week at Players and grew up attending this event and has volunteered at this event before, as well! It’s a hometown tournament for him. He checks in at 3-5% range for me and I think is an outstanding pivot click off of Dahmen.
Akshay’s peripherals are good, as you can see, but his recent form is terrible - missing three straight cuts. Proceed with caution.
Just a week after declaring him dead to me, Billy Horschel comes back into play. I don’t even want to get into it with you or with the golfer that shows up in the next image. You already know who it is.
(Know someone who would be interested in reading this free Substack? Hit one of the share buttons below! Last week I had a reader tag me with some other folks that he reads as he turned $13 into $2,200!)
I wish Skinns peripherals were better than this. I’m probably not chasing him.
I think Victor Perez is a great click. He’s going to get some attention, for sure, but I don’t think it gets out of line. All the peripherals are there, as you can see, and he’s made three straight cuts, improving his finish in each going 52nd at Mexico, 16th at Cognizant and 3rd at Puerto Rico.
Greyson Sigg in my model is the one friend that refuses to grow up and thinks crashing on your couch for a month straight while he continues to job hunt and work on his entrepreneurial skills is completely copasetic. Yes, of course he has his share of the rent money, but if you give him just two more weeks, he can double it and for a low, low price you can get in on the ground floor of the next can’t fail scheme. Please, Mr. Sigg, get off my couch and out of my model (he’s probably an ok play again this week.)
Hossler’s trend doesn’t look great, but it’s honestly not super bad. His numbers have remained mostly in line and he’s been solid this year. Not spectacular, but perfectly solid. I think there’s a decent chance he’s the least or second least clicked name in the $8K range making him an outstanding target for your tournament lineups, especially as a direct pivot off the chalkier Ghim.
I think Carson Young is a solid play.
He’s super, super volatile, but I think Lee Hodges has a great chance to be decent this week, especially at price point.
Sungjae keeps getting closer and closer to putting it all together. Just please for the love of god spend some time on the practice greens.
Sam Ryder is a good click, albeit a smidge chalky.
Absolutely no one is clicking him and he is super volatile but the peripherals for Jhonattan Vegas are there.
On paper, this should be a great track for Sepp Straka. The field agrees, creeping into the teen’s of click percentages. I’m … lukewarm. I don’t think he’s out of control click wise, but I don’t think you need to chase either. He missed the cut at Genesis, missed at Cognizant, barely survived at API and was awful on Sunday. He did just place 16th at Players, so maybe he’s starting to find his own, but I also don’t think he’s a full slam dunk.
Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through.