Valero Open: Player Pool
It's seriously so nice not to have Scottie in this field
Early projections I’ve seen seem to be reasonable on golfers this week. It’s so nice not having Scottie in a middling field and dealing with a 50% click rate.
Right now, I’m seeing 5-6 golfers that I presume will get just shy or above the 20% mark and it’s some of the usual suspects like Ludvig, Rory & surprise, surprise - Corey Conners.
Spieth is also a name I expect to trend highly, but notably, he did not make the pool below.
It was tougher to build this pool because a lot of the field can kind of do what we’re asking them to do.
I’m leaning into good strikers of the golf ball & approach players. I think solid putters & solid accuracy players are a definite plus, but not a deal breaker.
I do think par 5 scoring here will be critical, but even though I’ve included it as a metric in what I’m showing, the difference between first and last is half of a stroke on averages.
Going back to the accuracy bit - I’ll use Matt Fitzpatrick as an example. From his most recent performances (roughly the past month or so) he ranks 49th in the field in accuracy, as you’ll see below in the pool. On the season, he’s 59th on Tour in Driving Accuracy %. However, digging slightly deeper, his distance from the edge of the fairway metric - missed fairways, but how far he’s actually away from the fairway - he’s 6th on Tour. Which means when he misses the fairway, it’s not by much. That plays here, because it’s wild misses that will get you in trouble versus finding the short 2"-2.25” rough.
Anway, you’ll see a lot of usual suspects below.
Hideki is someone I expect to get a lot of attention and for good reason. But he’s an incredible play.
In fact, a lot of these guys, except maybe Eckroat will all likely be popular options and for good reason when you take a look at where they sit. Eckroat will be mid to high single digits and he’s probably mis-priced on the low end by $500-$1000 range. He’s a great play.
Mitchell is just an otherworldly ball striker and approach player. He’s a miserable putter. But, he’s well worth a look at price and mid to high single digits.
I’m annoyed Harris English is looking chalky because he projects as an outstanding play.
I mentioned Harman in the trend table article, but again here - hopefully he stays reasonable and doesn’t hit the teen’s in clicks, but I really like where his game is at and heading and I think this is a terrific spot for him.
Noren is going to get a lot of play, but he’s looking really solid again.
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We get into the more volatile plays here and I was actually kind of stunned at how many $6K options there were.
CT Pan quietly has made his last four cuts, having a 3rd at Mexico Open and performing admirably at some tough courses during the Florida swing. He made the cut and logged a T-41 his last time out here in 2022 and if you click him it will be just you and only people who read this Substack.
Bez is going to be pretty chalky, but he’s probably fine.
The book is out on Vic Perez. I don’t think he’ll come in as low as I’ve currently seen him, but if we can get him at 5% or less, yahtzee.
Novak should be a fine play again.
Lee Hodges - very solid play. Not a ton of clicks, well above field average in approach & ball striking and deadly accurate & lethal putter. Exactly what we like in the sub $7K golfer range.
Kevin Yu is feast or famine. You’re either getting a MC or a top 10. He profiles really well for this track, but his trend rank is pretty bad and the results also show that.
Nate Lashley is a solid play. You won’t need much from him and there is evidence he’s found his game, going 13th at the Players and 21st last week at Houston.
Silverman & Phillips are probably ok and should definitely be included in a MME pool if you’re that type of player.
I really want to like Rico Hoey at that price - all the peripherals are there. Dude absolutely cannot putt. You’re laughing to the bank if he gets through, but hoooo boy he absolutely cannot putt. I am talking dead dog last in putting on Tour.
Ryo Hisatsune has had some mixed results on Tour in his rookie season, but he’s always right on the cut line or inside. He gives you a chance every tournament and nobody is playing him this week. You won’t need much with his price tag.
Ben Martin… absolutely dirt cheap. Dirt, dirt, dirt cheap. Nobody is playing him. Doesn’t have a finish higher than 31st. Has made the cut here the last 4 times he’s been here. Placed T-10 last year. Cherry on top? He made the cut at Puerto Rico, The Players & at Valspar. That’s three straight cuts and only missed Cognizant by a stroke. In four of eight tournaments, he’s scored over 70 Draft Kings points and over 50 in another. You honestly just need him to make the cut and he pays off his salary and pretty much allows you to do whatever else you want to do with the rest of your roster. And look, I’m sorry that your significant other left you just for reading this paragraph - I get it - my wife left, too. If I squint, I can still see the tail lights in the distance. I’ll miss her, but at least I can play two $10K+ golfers when I roster Ben Martin.
Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through.