US Open: Player Pool
An incredibly fun week on the horizon.
Hello to all old and new readers. This article, like all of my articles, is free. There is a subscribe button below to either subscribe if you’re new here and/or upgrade if you’re not. While my articles are free, if you’d like to support my work, there is a support option for $5/month so I can continue to provide these, and potentially expand the offerings to you. Your support, no matter what level, is greatly appreciated.
I couldn’t possibly be more excited about this week. The last time we visited Shinnecock Hills, Phil made an ass of himself by hitting a still rolling golf ball and Zach Johnson, the perpetual windbag that he is, whined that they lost the golf course.
We’re in for some absolute wreckage on Thursday with the wind, although previous 2018 winner, Brooks Koepka, informs us that the course is softer than he remembers and you can get the ball above the hole, but believes the USGA can firm it up with no heavy rain in the forecast.
Maybe it won’t be quite like 2018, but we’ll see.
Wide fairways, but if you miss, you’re already in jail, and if you miss wide enough to be standing in the fescue, you should probably withdraw.
We are absolutely tracking the wind here — Thursday looks like it’s going to be absolutely gnarly. There may be some small drizzle or very slight precipitation, but nothing crazy as of now.
Purely an attempt at an educated guess, but Thursday morning players may have a smidge of an advantage, but I’m not a meteorologist.
Onto the player pool we go, where we’re trying something a little new here this week. Feel free to let me know what you think!
Without further ado, the player pool:
PLAYER POOL
No one is shocked to see Scottie & Rahm lead the way. Scottie is looking to complete the career grand slam and Rahm has a really solid US Open profile, winning one before.
Scottie’s salary is prohibitive yet again, but it appears that people are still going to be reaching for him. You have guys like Jason Day, Bud Cauley, Alex Fitzpatrick, Nicolai Hojgaard, Alex Smalley and Gary Woodland down in the $6,000 range, so while $14,900 is a hefty chunk, you can actually build a lineup around him this week, and likely why we’re seeing his numbers prop up.
Rahm is less cost problematic, coming in as our third highest salaried golfer, but extremely strong profile and you can build around him as an anchor pretty easily, only needing to dip for value once.
Cam Young also profiles well, but had a dip in his trend rank and finished T26 at the PGA and followed that up with a T46 at Memorial. At least worth monitoring a little bit, due to salary. Does have the AM wave.
Ludvig’s scrambling and around the green play are a concern, but absolutely an elite player off the tee and with his irons.
Collin Morikawa has a strong wind score and is moderately priced. Didn’t seem hampered by injury last week at RBC Canada and logged under par rounds on Friday, Saturday & Sunday in route to a top 30 finish.
Tommy Fleetwood had a solo second here in 2018, riding a blistering -7 Sunday to almost backdoor the win. Tremendous wind player and has a Thursday morning tee time with Rory & Ludvig.
Matt Fitzpatrick also profiles extremely well and has a US Open victory at Brookline in 2022. Strong wind player, excellent around the greens. Does appear to be a bit of a chalkier click, coming into this with a 17-19% click range.
Xander has a ridiculously strong majors record placing 19 (!) top 10’s since 2017 - two of which were wins - out of 37 attempts. He places top 10 over 50% of the time he tees off in roughly the past decade, and this year is no different, logging a T9 at The Masters and a T7 at PGA.
Si Woo’s extreme accuracy will be extremely beneficial here.
JJ Spaun won last year at Oakmont, has a morning draw and placed two top 10’s sandwiched by two top 15’s in four of his last 5 events, with the only hiccup being at Aronimink.
Reitan makes me nervous, I won’t lie. Middling around the green and putting median numbers and a limited majors sample size that hasn’t been impressive.
Jake Knapp is ridiculously underpriced, but that’s baked in because of his thumb injury. It sounds like he is intent on staying in this field, but he hasn’t played in months. You have no idea what you’re going to get.
Alex Fitzpatrick has been lighting the Tour on fire since he won at Zurich with his brother. He hasn’t missed a cut since coming over. I expect he’ll be popular.
Burns choked away the US Open title last year at Oakmont and was in position last week, only to offer a measly 71 on Sunday to finish T20 at the Canadian Open. Still, he’s been playing stronger golf, has a positive trend score and good profile and is one of the best putters on Tour.
Lowry is phenomenal in the wind and Bud Cauley has just been a good golfer — as you recall we were on him last week in his win. Will there be an emotional hangover is the question for Bud.
Lastly we get into our values and leverage.
These players obviously carry bigger risks, but profile solidly in the model.
Justin Rose was a flat out embarrassment last week and burned me pretty badly, but here’s hoping that’s a blip.
Hovland, as previously mentioned, looks like he’s building his crescendo and coming back into form. When he’s playing his best, he’s one of the best golfers on the planet.
Rai obviously won a major this year, but was a disappointment last week as well.
Jordan Spieth is like if you trained a raccoon to play golf, but also made it snort cocaine. So the entertainment value is there. Wizard in the short game.
Bridgeman is showing life again after a bit of a slump.
I think Keegan is a bit overlooked this week, solid value play. Also is in shouting distance of the northeast, so there’s that non-quantifiable sure whatever “stat”.
Tom Kim might be back. I mentioned just yesterday that he’s been hooping and has only missed one cut this year. Well, he actually made the player pool this week, has a top 10 this year and has a strong statistical output, all in the positive. Lethally accurate off the tee, top 20 in approach, top 35 on Tour in GIR%, top 15 in proximity to the hole and top 10 (!) in scrambling.
The rest that didn’t get a blurb, I don’t think you need to chase, but they’re in the pool for a reason, so make of that what you will.
Good luck this week, let’s get 6/6 through and enjoy the week. Someone go win the Milly!