Toph's Thoughts: Zozo Championship
Expanded thoughts
I’m shocked at how little apparent value there is this week. Draft Kings really made pricing strong. That isn’t to say that value won’t pop up. Sports, especially golf, are incredibly variant and funny things happen.
I think Sungjae wins this golf tournament. He is extremely high in both the model and the trend table, just won an individual silver and team gold at the Asian games and lost in a playoff in the Korean PGA. He’s already on the exact time zone as well (Chiba, Japan and South Korea are in the same time zone). His accuracy will help him a ton and you can’t take shortcuts on this course. The only thing that will potentially hold him back is, you guessed it, his putter. Out of golfers in the field who have played a minimum of 8 rounds here, Sungjae is third out of that list in true strokes gained at this course and is still above his baseline expectation.
I think Morikawa is really good course fit here as well. I’ll be curious when the cards get flipped over what it looks like for lineups trying to squeeze in two five figure golfers (like starting Xander, Collin or Sungjae, Rickie).
I think you can get off the board a bit with this being a limited field and no cut event. Every golfer you pick is going to accrue points every day, so you’re looking for ceiling. I think that brings a “stars and scrubs” approach more into the fold than in normal PGA weeks.
I have no idea how much he’ll actually be clicked, but I like Ryo Hisatsune this week. $7,200 and has been incredibly strong on the world tour. He had two back to back MC’s in September that might have been cause for concern, but went out and won the Cazoo Open de France right after. His lowest finish in the previous 5 starts before the two MC’s was 27th and the other four were 15th or higher. So it appears those were just a blip. And you need to try and find some value. Hisatsune also is 7th in the trend table and his approach, ball striking and tee to green trends are especially encouraging.
I’m slightly concerned about Eric Cole’s accuracy, but there’s no doubt he’s been playing lights out golf recently. No issue keeping him in lineups, but he may get clicked a lot more after last week.
People love playing Sahith Theegala and I think that trend will continue. Slightly worried about his recent approach game, but his putting has been other worldly, coming in only behind Lee Hodges in the limited player pool.
Click here: Player Pool: Zozo Championship to access the player pool I’m referencing.
In the same vein of last week when I briefly wrote about Tom Kim saying you don’t need me to tell you he’s a good play and then he went on to win, you don’t need me to tell you Xander, Adam Scott, Keegan or Hideki are good plays. They are. Play them, they’re fine. Hideki, Keegan and Xander all have incredible course history here.
I’m not sold on Rickie this week and it doesn’t seem like field is either, preferring to allocate their salary to Xander or Collin and then clicking Hideki next. Rickie still made the pool and he’s still a plus overall player who is accurate and his putter doesn’t hold him back. So, the case for Rickie becomes — if you’re playing a bigger tournament and he’s going to be 4-7% in that tournament, is he any less likely to win here versus a Collin or a Xander? And if he is, is he that less likely to do so? Terrific contrarian option in a limited field, even if the math isn’t fully sold on him. For what it’s worth, he finished second to Keegan here last year.
Joel Dahmen is playing much better golf and is number one in my trend table. It comes down, as most of these cases do when you have a fringe player, to what is his putter going to do? Helpful that the rest of his game is in sharper focus.
I think Vincent Norrman is going to get lost because he’s in no mans land salary wise. He has plus accuracy and is an outstanding ball striker. Likely a good way to get different from the field.
I’ll mention JJ Spaun because the model likes him a ton — but … you guessed it… putter. Still, a good rank in the trend table, better than plus accuracy and top tier tee to green game in recent form.
One of the metrics holding Lee Hodges back from being much higher up is his around the green game. I think that could be challenged if he’s missing greens, but he should be able to avoid 3 putts and scramble well because is 3rd in recent form putting in the entire field and might actually be the best putter in the field overall. T23 here last year in his only Zozo appearance.
Good luck and have fun — and congrats on getting 6/6 through, even if it is on a technicality.