Toph's Thoughts: Wyndham Championship
Let's look at trends
We had some golfers just miss the cut on the player pool. I’d consider them volatile, but in play if you’re looking to get off the board. Conversely, if you’re looking for a reason to fade, could be used as that. The golfers in question: Beau Hossler, Austin Eckroat, Sam Bennett, Andrew Putnam, Stewart Cink, Justin Lower, Jason Dufner, Mark Hubbard & Chris Kirk.
Sungjae is my lock of the week. The course history is there, the accuracy, the trends on the rest of his game. He’s also 36th in the FedEx standings, meaning he’ll have motivation to try and secure a spot in East Lake (where he resides not far from).
I think we could get some Lucas Glover flop lag this week. After MC’ing at the 3M when he was ultra chalky, he comes into this week with a price decrease, an accurate player and sitting 112th in the FedEx cup. He’ll have motivation to stay in the top 125 and would likely need a win to sneak into the playoffs.
Denny McCarthy is a lethal putter and tremendously accurate player. His biggest downfall has been his approach, but it’s relatively easy to gain approach at Sedgefield if you find the fairway, which Denny shouldn’t have any issue doing. He missed the cut last year, but had been 4/4 prior to last year. He’s notched a T36, a T22, a T9 and a T15. He’s slightly above average in the trend table, which means his game has slightly improved, but isn’t surging — that’s not a bad thing! He’s even gaining in putting on trend, which is absurd, with how good he usually is.
Garrick Higgo MC’d last year in his only appearance at Sedgefield, but he also is a fit for what I’m looking for. Accurate player with a plus putter. He’s 12th in the trend table, 17th in the model and he’s gaining everywhere save off the tee where he is staying steady. Not only is he gaining, he’s in the upper echelon of gainers. Fits the exact mold of what we’ve been identifying recently.
In theory, Shane Lowry should be a good course fit here. He’s an accurate player and a great putter. He has decent course history, too. I am concerned with how bad his trend is. His ball striking, approach and tee to green is plummeting. However — he is outside of the playoffs and needs a strong finish. I’d rather chase Lowry than JT in terms of going after players whose game has been not great and needs a big push for the playoffs.
Completely off of Gary Woodland. 130th in full field trend and he can’t putt. Not a good recipe here at Sedgefield.
Brendon Todd has made four of his last five cuts on Tour and also has gone T36 and T10 in his last two outings here at Sedgefield. I think this is the first time or one of the first times he’s made the pool, even as the last name in. He’s 47th in trend table, so not surging per se, but his game is headed in the right area. I don’t know how clicked he’ll be, but I’ve never been under the assumption that the field is rushing to play Brendon Todd.
Sam Burns is in no danger of missing anything in the playoffs. He’s 19th in Fed Ex. But, he’s an excellent putter and has a great finish here in his one time playing. Motivation is the biggest question. If he’s heavily clicked, it is worth noting that his game is going slightly backwards in trend, finishing in the 80’s in the full field trend table.
Adam Hadwin is again a good course fit, but he should have been that last week at 3M Open. He missed the cut by one stroke and had some truly baffling holes that likely cost him and also had to deal with a suspension in play. Maybe he’ll be overlooked from that performance. His game, while still positive, only nets him a 59th in the full field trend table. So… I think depending on where he projects, it may be worth trying to go overweight if he’s 5% or so or less. The inverse is also true - if he’s projecting as chalk, you can safely avoid.
Aaron Rai is a dream fit for this course. I am expecting huge chalk, however.
Adam Schenk has an insane birdie rate from 150-175. Plus putter, slightly above average in accuracy. Worth noting he has awful course history here, though, and it’s a very predictive course.
Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through and storm into the playoffs on a high.