Toph's Thoughts: US Open

I'm already tired of hearing the word barranca

• I write about golf because I absolutely love the game and I also love DFS. Most weeks & weekends, I’m watching as much coverage as my toddler allows me to watch. I also tilt my players in the PGA app. Because this isn’t a PGA event, I won’t have to see how many times one of my players hits it into “native area” or “barranca” and for that, I’m thankful (and already tilting).

• I don’t want to spend a lot of time on Scottie Scheffler, because, well — obviously. But you know what’s insane? He is 15th in my full field trend table. 15th!! And that’s with his putting still going down the tube from 32 to 16 rounds. His golf is historic right now — I’m not being hyperbolic when I say if he could putt at Tour average, he’d win every single tournament he enters. You can still find him at +600 on Fan Duel at the time of this writing as an outright winner. Bananas. As far as DFS goes, he’s likely to be the most clicked on name in the field and… well, Rahm makes a good leverage play, but you’re betting on Scottie still having a terrible time with his putter.

• I was extremely excited when I saw that Patrick Cantlay was looking sub 10% early in the week. That’s no longer the case, but he’s not projecting as high as Scottie, Rahm or Brooks, and I love him as a leverage play. He held the course record at LACC before Max Homa beat it by one stroke (not on a US Open setup) and played golf locally at UCLA. He has played LACC more or almost more than any golfer in the field and I think that adds a good amount of leverage. His major record has left something to be desired, but he’s carded a 14th at Augusta this year and a 9th at the PGA. Save for the Waste Management Open, he hasn’t finished lower than top 30th at an elevated event this year either.

• I think the limited amount of data we have on Bryson & Mito have them overrated in the player pool, Mito especially. Pereria is brutal with his putter, so I’m not as in to what he brings. My initial thought when watching flyovers of LACC was “oh god, this is a Bryson course” and it very well might be, although with the sloping terrain and elevation changes, he may struggle if he can’t shape his shots like required. I don’t expect this to be a bomb & gouge event. I’d say the same about Brooks, as far as limited data, but … well… he might be the best major event player we’ve seen since Tiger, so.

• I really like Si Woo Kim this week. A lot. Incredibly accurate off the tee, outstanding tee to green & ball striking game, above average around the green and a very good scrambling game. I believe he’s severely mispriced at $7,300 and I’d consider being overweight on him in tournaments. He carded a 27th at The Players, 29th at the Masters, 2nd at Byron Nelson, 29th at Charles Schwab & a 4th at the Memorial. I’m a little weary of the 77th at the PGA, but I’m willing to write some of that off given how we saw a lot of players struggle there given the conditions. The price is just too good.

• I’m super curious where the percentages are going to come in on Hatton. I personally believe he’ll be the first name clicked in the $8K range, but I know there are other names within that range so we’ll see. But he’s playing lights out and it may be his best season on Tour. Firmly believe he’ll be in contention this weekend.

• Adam Scott is really interesting. He’s second overall in my full field trend table with the gains he’s made everywhere in his game from his last 32 rounds to his last 16 rounds. He’s made massive putting strides, but save for his around the green game, everywhere else is gaining very well, too, so that alleviates any potential concerns there. Consider his last 5 events: 31st at RBC Heritage (elevated), 5th at Wells Fargo (elevated), 8th at Byron Nelson, 29th at the PGA Championship & 8th at the Memorial (elevated). He’s coming in and competing at the highest levels & only carries at $7,500 price tag. Both he & Wyndham Clark being priced exactly the same should keep clicks on both names in check.

• As we get into the deeper end of the player pool that’s more volatile, I find myself being really drawn to Austin Eckroat as a play. $7,000 price tag with a tee to green game (past 16 rounds) that is higher than the likes of Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick & Shane Lowry and ball striking over the past 16 rounds beats out golfers you may have heard of such as Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau & Tyrrell Hatton. Eckroat also ranks 17th on Tour in total driving.

• Sepp Straka is another interesting name in that price range ($7,100). Save for his around the green game, he’s plus in every other category I looked at this week over his last 16 rounds. He comes in 9th overall in my full field trend table and seems to be finding his approach game, which of course is extremely timely for a US Open. He made the cut at Augusta, finished 7th in the PGA Championship which has a little bit of correlation with the US Open, even if a bit noisy, and a 29th at Charles Schwab and a 16th at Memorial his last three times out. To say his game is trending is an understatement.

• The rest of the bottom of the player pool has a lot of volatility. I like two names down there and both are sub $7K and we already talked about Dylan Wu in the Model Musing’s article, so I want to bring up Andrew Putnam. At $6,800, I want to be clear that this is a volatile option, however - he’s extremely accurate with his driver and he’s made solid gains in his game off the tee, ball striking and tee to green. He has a plus approach game and is 9th on Tour in SG: Putting per the PGA Tour measurements. While he may not be first page leaderboard material, an accurate driver that can use the roll out that’s coming on this firm golf course and a strong putter can help him see the weekend and finish in the top half of the field. That he’s coming off a 29th at Charles Schwab & a 5th at Memorial certainly doesn’t hurt.

• Good luck & have fun out there this week - feel free to chat with me on Twitter - at TopherThinks - and get 6/6 through to the weekend.