Toph's Thoughts: Traveler's Championship
PGA DFS/betting thoughts for the next PGA Tour stop
Won’t spend too much time here, but just missing the cut in the player pool this week were Chez Reavie and the literal last cut Nate Lashley. I think both are volatile options, but Chez might even make some sense for cash lineups and Lashley will be a great pivot for GPP’s. Lashley will return to the Motor City next week where he carded his first (and only) PGA Tour win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic (which yours truly will be at all week).
Adendum as always - you don’t need me to tell you that Scottie, Rahm, Rory, Xander, Cantlay etc are all options. They are. Pick the one or two you like best and roll with it. I’m a little less bullish on Cantlay given what I’ve seen his click % at (above 20%) and he’s never carded higher than a T-11 here, but if you think this is his breakthrough, knock yourself out.
Do we do narratives? Not really, but if you’re into that sort of thing — Tom Kim & Scottie Scheffler are great friends and they share a birthday today (the day before the tournament starts), so… auto lock? FWIW, Tom Kim profiles really well for this course and Scottie Scheffler is… well, he’s Scottie Scheffler.
Right back to the well with Si Woo Kim this week. I’m hoping his Sunday ejection at LACC will scare off some clicks. His profile is outstanding for the Pete Dye designed TPC-River Highlands. Accurate as can be, great approach game and hitting 70% of greens in regulation from 150-175, meaning his lower irons are a strength in his bag. He is also an above average scrambler, something that correlates with success at TPC-RH.
Let’s talk about Hideki Matsuyama. Out of the 38 golfers in this week's player pool, he’s third in approach numbers over his last 16 rounds and sixth in tee to green performance as well. He’s trending positively in both categories and even showing plus movement with his around the green & ball striking game. He cards a T32 at the US Open last week, his lowest finish since March 2nd, fyi — and doesn’t get a salary bump. The weakest part of his game is his putting, and TPC-RH is not a very threatening putting course.
Lee Hodges is at the top of the second part of the player pool - the volatile section, if you will. But there is so much to like about his game and where it has been. Going back three months to the Valspar Championship, he has missed only one cut out of nine tournaments. At some of the more technical tracks, he carded a 41st at RBC Heritage, a 29th at Charles Schwab, a 12th (!) at Memorial (not necessarily a technical track, but very difficult and also an elevated event) and a 25th at the RBC Canadian. While not overwhelming in any one category, he’s a plus player in his last 16 rounds everywhere save putting (see the same blurb for Matsuyama) and he’s 17th in my full field trend table gaining on his 32 round baseline in every category (again, save putting). If he can get a little hot with his putter on the easier TPC-RH greens, he should more than pay off his $6,900 salary (nice). A T-25 last year in his only Travler’s appearance certainly doesn’t hurt, either.
The only thing holding me back from pushing every chip in on Ludvig Aberg is his subpar approach game over the last 16 measured rounds. Still, he is a major talent and you won’t see him priced in the mid $7,000’s much longer than this season. A lot of volatility, but he absolutely gives you win equity given his talent and he has a terrific driver.
Joseph Bramlett made the pool in large part due to excellent ball striking and off the tee numbers. Looking at the peripherals, though, I think he’s one of the weaker selections out of the pool. He’s not very accurate and is a subpar scrambler. With the rough being reported at 4”+ he’ll have a difficult time saving par at a birdie fest if he finds himself out of position often.
Doug Ghim is an atrocious putter, but has elite accuracy and is 26th in total driving on Tour. His last three events have yielded a 27th at Wells Fargo (elevated event), a 19th at Byron Nelson and a 12th at RBC Canadian - course with a similar profile to TPC-RH.
Matthew NeSmith is someone who has been cut here twice, but did card a T-19 last year. Another golfer that carries elite accuracy and a solid to above average, but not overwhelming, game everywhere else - the price tag is fantastic for potential return and I’m guessing no more than a 2% click rate. If you’re going for more of a stars and scrubs lineup, he makes a lot of sense and you can get a +240 line for him on Fan Duel for a Top 40 finish.
As always, catch me on Twitter at TopherThinks - shoot a message here, whatever! I love hearing your thoughts and successes. Good luck, let’s get 6/6 through.