Toph's Thoughts: Sanderson Farms
Thoughts heading into our next Fall Swing tournament
I am a golf fanatic. I love the stuff. It’s pretty evident. I had the opportunity to attend the practice round and several of the days at Rocket Mortgage Classic when the PGA made their annual swing through Michigan and I got to meet and chit chat with many of the players. It was the same event that in it’s inaugural year, I met Viktor Hovland and instantly put him in the “My Guys” tier of golfers I follow and actively cheer for. This year, Ludvig Aberg was my inductee. He was such a nice person and genuinely seemed happy to be there and surprised that I knew who he was.
Aberg now has to be acutely aware of just how many people know him after making the European Ryder Cup team before even playing in his first major. The DFS community certainly knows who he is and he is heads and tails above the rest of the field in terms of projected clicks as well as name value in the Sanderson Farms field. Projected over 30% in both areas I’ve seen, I’m expecting even higher numbers in cash and single entry GPP’s/small field tournaments. I’d love to click his name, but it’s an easy fade for me and the way I play the game. The man has all the talent in the world and I think he’s the next big thing. And hey, maybe international travel and time zones and partying with his European Ryder Cup teammates won’t affect him, but I’m comfortable going against the grain here. Cash games, however, I feel like he’s an instant lock button and just move on.
Sam Ryder tops this weeks model due to some elite recent play in approach and tee to green metrics. Checking in at low double digits and an awkward price tag, I’m extremely comfortable locking him into lineups given the last few times we’ve seen him in much stronger fields, he’s delivered results. Sitting 61st in the FedEx Cup Fall rankings, Ryder has a vested interested in firmly cementing himself in the 51-60 number as that will qualify him for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational early next year. One of these courses and in this field, his traditionally strong putting can separate him on the firm and fast Bermuda greens.
Nicholas Lindheim is a name coming back up through the ranks after fighting injury to regain his card for the PGA. I’ve seen a wide gap in how often he’s going to be clicked, but his recent Korn Ferry numbers have been phenomenal and and he even logged a 27th place finish at the Wyndham.
The usual suspects up top and familiar names (Eric Cole, Stephan Jaeger, Emiliano Grillo) are all in play, obviously. Same with Keith Mitchell.
A play I am going to mention that might make both of us vomit is Chesson Hadley. He has a solid birdie to bogey ratio, has been quite good with his putter this year, especially in recent events, and dating back to the RBC Candadian has 6/7 made cuts and all but one resulting in a top 40 finish, including a 6th at the Barracuda Championship — a similar strength field event.
Erik van Rooyen seemingly goes overlooked in every tournament, was #1 in my trend table at Fortinet and placed T-30 and is still in the hunt for more FedEx points to secure his status. He ranks 2nd in the trend table this week and is modestly priced. He’s a good way to get different in your tournament lineups and has been stout in his previous world tour stops as well.
Dylan Wu will be in contention if his putter stays as hot as it has been. He’s been known to be explosive in both directions on the score card and is carrying low teen click projections - safe for your tournament lineups, but is a boom or bust type.
Adam Svensson has been playing steady as she comes golf since the end of June. A high trend rank, excellent accuracy and tee to green play make him a great lower priced pivot off of some of the chalkier names up top.
I’ve played Greyson Sigg in tournaments more than anybody should play Greyson Sigg. Yet, here we are again. Outside of one disastrous finish at the 3M Open, Mr. Sigg has paid off his salary with steady and solid play. If his putter is cooperating, he can put himself in top 20 contention, carding two top 20’s, a T-25 (Fortinet) and another top 40 in four of his last 7 events.
Do you want a super gross play that no one else is touching? $7,100 Martin Laird. Has been riding a white hot putter and is extremely accurate with a terrific good drive percentage as well (balls ending up on the green in regulation regardless of where the ball lands). His last 4 PGA events? 20th at Barracuda, 2nd at the 3M Open, 58th at the Wyndham and T-19 at Fortinet. Tournament play.
Jason Dufner … I’m not sure I can finish any sentence here seriously, but he’s 12th in the trend table, no one is playing him, he’s $6,500, he was T-19 at Fortinet and was 31st at John Deere, 24th at Barbasol and 20th at the 3M. You could do worse if you’re bargain shopping.
Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through.