Toph's Thoughts: Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thank you, Canada, for the awful air
Due to some unavoidable schedule conflicts, Model Musing’s will not be available this week. Highlighting some of the plays my team loved at their current click percentage projection - Cam Davis, Nicolai Hojgaard and Morikawa. Cam has won here before, told me he was in a great head space and happy to be back in Detroit and has good vibes around the place. That kind of positive mental space can definitely be beneficial, and if he’s barely getting to double digit clicks, may be worth being overweight on. Hojgaard, from my own thoughts, absolutely destroys the ball, so could be a great course fit. Morikawa… well, he’s Collin Morikawa. He’s a great golfer and a good pivot from the chalkiest player in the field in Rickie.
What to do with Sungjae Im… I bring him up because he didn’t even make the player pool. His stats have been miserable. He’s almost at the bottom of the trend table. Detroit Golf Club is definitely a get right spot, but Sungjae is projecting over 20%. At first I thought he might be a great play because he hasn’t been terrific of late and people might be avoiding the $9K range. But, in projections I’ve seen, if he’s going to be the third highest clicked name in the field, I’m perfectly fine fading and eating the loss if he goes off, because if he hasn’t gotten all the way back and you can get over on a fifth or a quarter of the field by fading, count me in.
I’m more into Rickie in the betting markets in finishing positions than DFS. I’ve seen upwards of 30% in some projections. I think he’s likely a cash game lock and underweight GPP play.
Doug Ghim is super high in my pool rankings and I’m … wary. But! The argument for him is sound. Has an outstanding tee to green game and ball striking game and he’s going to give himself plenty of opportunities for birdie at a course with zero defense. He is also the top player in my trend table. However, he’s missed the cut twice at Rocket and his best finish was T32. I am cautiously optimistic that he’ll have his best showing, but what that could be, I’m not sure.
They are definitely going to be chalkier mid-range options, but I’m all in on Austin Eckroat and Ludvig Aberg. Just stud players with really good all around games that are both good course matches (although, not too hard to be a course match here). While one of the stronger fields Detroit has seen, it still isn’t a major field or an elevated event field - there will be more room at the top for them and they’ve more than held their own in those stronger fields as well.
Adam Schenk is interesting to me. Good recent form, especially with the putter and his approach game. He’s made three of four cuts at Rocket, albeit his only miss being last year. Here’s the deal though — projections I’ve seen, he’s at 10-11% at $7,300 which leads me me to my very next point…
… Nate Lashley. Same price, former winner and my jaw hit my floor when I saw that he’d be at around 3%. I think the two MC’s out of his last three tournaments might be what’s pushing that percentage down, but including the RBC Heritage and forward, he has logged five top 40’s out of 7 tournaments. In a more even field and a place he’s won before, maybe he’s a good direct pivot from the higher clicks in Schenk and Sam Stevens.
Max Homa might be the least clicked name in the $10K range and so I have a ton of interest in him. Trend table — his biggest gains are being made with the putter and off the tee — put those together at a place like DGC where he can give himself a lot of opportunities and a hot putter can quite literally propel you to a win here, I’ve got a lot of intrigue. 30th overall in my full field trend table.
Sepp Straka might be a really interesting piece given his awkward $8,300 price point. He’s not losing strokes anywhere in his game over the last 16 rounds and in the full field trend table, he’s 11th in biggest gains with the putter itself. He has two MC’s in the last two rockets, but it’s worth noting he’s carded a T11 and a T8 on this course before.
Doesn’t seem like there is much consensus on Gordon Sargent and how many people are actually going to play him, but in a loaded $7K range, it may be worth taking a few extra clicks. He hits the ball an absolute mile and he’s going to leave himself nothing but wedges into every par 4 and he has the distance to reach all four par 5’s in two. He’s going to have plenty of scoring chances.
Vincent Norrman has been on a bad run recently, missing three straight cuts, but he’s dipped sub $7K and isn’t projecting for anyone playing him. He’s a GPP only flier, but he also hits the ball a country mile. He’s 12th on Tour in measured driving distance. Again - I want to make sure that I’m making it clear he’s a volatile GPP option, but that distance is going to set him up for a lot of opportunity. Just needs his putter to get hot to make a move.
I don’t usually buy too much into playing certain waves or finding any sort of edge depending on who is starting when. I think this is probably more relevant for first round leader bets or first round showdowns, but it was finally dry again here in Michigan today at high 70’s, low 80’s temp wise. But I don’t think that did enough to firm up the course. I was on the course on Tuesday all day and my socks were damp leaving. This sounds funny to read (and weird to write) but Sungjae Im personally told me just how soft the course was when he played 9 holes on Tuesday. I was on at least four fairways (2, 6, 10 and 17) and could feel it myself. So — the point I was trying to make for FRL bets or Thursday showdown, is that I firmly like the morning wave in both of those markets. For tournament long contests, I think you’re more than welcome to play anyone you like.
Good luck - get 6/6 through - shoot me a message on Twitter if you want to chat! You can find me at TopherThinks.