Toph's Thoughts: RBC Canadian
The most important golf thoughts this week.
Did anything happen this week? Seems like a pretty droll week.
PLEASE BE AWARE: I’ve mentioned a few times, but really trying to hammer this home - Joseph Bramlett & Charley Hoffman have withdrawn and aren’t playable or bettable this week. They WD after the player pool was posted.
The rough is insane this week. It might be longer than it was at Memorial where it ate golfers alive. Oakdale is very tree lined almost on the entire course paired with the very long rough. The front 9 is much longer and difficult than the back, if you’re considering any type of stacks as that comes. I usually don’t put too much stock in that, but there it is.
In Model Musing’s, my partner in this Substack mentioned a couple guys I was going to write about anyway, mainly Aaron Rai and Cam Champ. Champ has been tremendously accurate this season, especially avoiding the rough and in a trend table I make for the entire field that takes into consideration where there game has been over the past two months or so to where it is now, Champ is near the top in gains, especially on approach and ball striking. If he fails, it will be because of his putter.
I don’t typically spend too much time on the guys at the top of the models. They’re usually the highest priced golfers and they’re there for a reason. You don’t need me to tell you that Rory, Hatton, Fitzpatrick, etc. are good golfers and worth your consideration. Of course they are. Play one of them. Play two of them. Pick the one you like most and play them.
Absolutely can’t wait for this to bite me on the backside, but I am nowhere near as bullish on Cam Young as the rest of the market seems to be. Very average approach game recently, he’s not accurate off the tee (although he can hit the ball a mile) — he puts 30% of his drives in the rough and when he’s approaching the green and finds rough green side, he’s losing strokes around the green and is a sub 50% scrambler from the rough. While he is in the player pool and should still be in consideration given the field, if I’m playing single entry or cash games I’m avoiding him or potentially being underweight in multiple entry lineups.
I think Mark Hubbard might carry some steam because of what he did last week at the Memorial. Places nicely in the player pool. This feels like a “stars and scrubs” kind of week price point wise — not a lot of mid range price points. Hubbard might be among the top 3 clicked in this salary area.
Adrian Meronk is going to be incredibly interesting as to where he comes in click wise. I wonder if he or Ludvig Aberg will be played more… there is only $300 in salary with Aberg being the cheaper of the two. Aberg, I read somewhere, is one of the biggest liabilities at Bet MGM this week as he makes his professional debut. Meronk, however, has been playing professionally in Europe and made several PGA starts and needs a T15 or better to earn special temporary membership. Meronk is incredible off the tee & has elite ball striking numbers. The Polish phenom won the Italian Open on the world tour, finished 40th in the PGA championship and then finished 5th at the KLM Open on the world tour in his past 3 starts. $8,600 is a great midrange price point on an extremely talented golfer with a lot of motivation.
Adam Hadwin checks in lower on the player pool, but is playing in his home country and is in the upper quarter of the trend table I create for myself. At $8,700, he may draw clicks away from Meronk as people look to play the Canadians in the Canadian Open (love a good narrative) but there is value in catching him at a mid-price point if his game is on an upswing.
This substack unabashedly roots for Carson Young and this week will be no different. I think this track sets up fantastically for what his game is and the price tag still doesn’t represent what he’s capable of. If he’s sub 10%, you’re clicking him every time.
The sub $7K golfer not named Sam Bennett I’m most intrigued by is Kramer Hickock. His overall game has been very solid over the past month and since February, he has only missed two PGA cuts (Valero, Byron Nelson) but had a respectable top 40 at Wells Fargo and a 21st at Charles Schwab, again - more of a technical track that I suspect Oakdale will play like. His putter the last 16 rounds has been abysmal and has probably held him back from higher finishes, but when you’re playing close to minimum priced players, that’s the risk you take.
Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through - and as always, you can find me on Twitter at TopherThinks or send me a message or comment here if there’s a golfer you’d like me to expand on!