Toph's Thoughts: Mexico Open
Late night
Gary Woodland checks in over Jon Rahm, so the model is clearly broken. I believe most of that comes from distance and off the tee where Woodland holds an advantage, but Rahm’s game is better elsewhere.
The Rahm conundrum in both Draft Kings and betting is rostering him at such a high percentage or taking swings (no pun intended) at such a heavy favorite. It’s an extremely watered down field. You wonder if Rahm is only back as he is the defending champion and if his torrid pace to start this season slows in some fashion, but fading him is a scary proposition and not playing him in cash games is a borderline commitable offense.
Hojgaard is interesting this week yet again as he absolutely pounds the ball, but can get very wayward off the tee. I have a lot of interest on the betting side of things if you’re going to take a swing at top 30. I think he’ll be there.
Stephan Jaeger is a mid price option that I think may go overlooked. He’s not absurdly long off the tee, but it has plenty of pop. The rest of his game is all positive - not overwhelmingly so, but enough that he placed 8th in my player pool. He’s missed two cuts all year, including at RBC Heritage, returning from an undisclosed injury or personal matter. In a subpar field, I like his chances of not only making the cut, but placing a top 20.
Vincent Norrman pounds the ball off the tee. I don’t have a single negative stat on him from the last 16 rounds. This course really suits his game. I believe you can get a lot of positive numbers on him both in betting and his $7,200 Draft Kings price. He even has a positive putting metric!
Will Gordon is another golfer who can send his tee ball into the stratosphere. He’s putting the ball on the green or fringe in regulation at a 76% clip! In tournaments like these, we’re usually looking for some deep cuts. At a $7,900 price tag, he’s a bit higher than his game indicates he should be, but you’ll take it in a field like this - especially if you’re paying up for Rahm.
My one sub $7,000 golfer that I think makes the cut and has a decent finish? Brandon Matthews. Absolutely murders the ball, takes care of the par 5’s and in weaker field events has carded two top 40 finishes as a solo player and a T-7 last week at Zurich (which won’t show in his Draft Kings card). You can’t ask for much more from a $6,600 player.
If it’s not Rahm, I like Benny An (Byeong Hun An), Gary Woodland or Wyndham Clark to take the title. Dark horse - Eric Cole.
Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through.