Toph's Thoughts: John Deere Classic

The People's Major

(Editor’s Note: Link to the player pool at the bottom of this article)

• As we get closer to wrapping up both major season and golf’s regular season, there aren’t many opportunities for fringe players to find their way into the top 70 of the FedEx cup rankings to even give themselves a shot at the enormous sums of money that await those who do qualify, especially those that make their way to Atlanta for the Tour Championship. Two golfers currently sitting outside that top 70 with great course history that need to make up points and make them up fast? Michael Kim and J.T. Poston (last years champion) and both are projecting for sub 10% click rates. They’re both in the bottom/volatile portion of the player pool, but they are there. Food for thought.

• Originally I had seen Denny McCarthy for about 10% more than Russ Henley. I’ve since been able to get a view on numbers that I trust a lot more and think they’re going to come in about even percentage wise. It’s a coin flip. Henley is the better overall golfer, McCarthy is the better and more consistent putter. I think a way that you could get off the board is just clicking them both. It’ll leave you in the low $7K average for your other 4 golfers, but there are plenty of values down there.

• Ludvig Aberg is projecting as the least clicked in the $10K range. JDC is a great jumping off point for young guns getting their start. Aberg has shown to be a talent far beyond his years and his time will come sooner rather than later. I’d much rather have him than Cam Young.

• I love Kevin Yu, but man alive his putter is costing him money and it’s going in the wrong direction. Every other part of his game is on the rise. He is outstanding in almost every aspect of his game, but his putter is holding him back. Can he avoid becoming Luke List? Ironically, List was his playing partner for the Rocket Mortgage practice round. How much of it was his extended time off is to be told, but from a full season perspective, it isn’t the most glowing of reports. The good news for him is that TPC Deere Run (TPC-DR) is one of the easiest courses on Tour to gain strokes with the flat stick.

• I’m seeing a wide range of projections on Eric Cole as far as click rate. On the low end, I’ve seen down to 12% and over 20% on the high end. I don’t think people really know what to give to him, so I’m not going to be shocked if that number lands anywhere between that 12-25% range. Here’s where I stand - if you see a percentage you trust on him coming in at say 14% or lower, he’s an outstanding play. Anything above, I’m wary on. I touched a little bit on it in the player pool, but according to the trend table I build out, he is losing strokes everywhere in his game from his previous 32 rounds to his previous 16 rounds. However, his putting is well over a half a stroke above his baseline average. TPC-DR is an easy place to gain strokes putting and if you believe his flat stick is going to stay white hot, play him. If you think it will regress more towards his baseline, then maybe we hold off on playing him. One thought I had was avoiding the $10K range altogether and starting Cole/Schenk as the two horses and playing 4 guys in the $7500-low $8000 range.

• Speaking of Adam Schenk, I actually like him to collect his first PGA win of the season this week. He’s a volatile player, for certain, as evidenced by 3 top 10’s and two MC’s in his last 5 starts, pointing to his boom or bust nature. If you pull the curtain back a bit and look at some of the “lesser” tournaments he’s entered, you’ll find a 2nd at Valspar, a 2nd at Charles Schwab and a 7th Rocket Mortgage. He has the ability to keep it low and his roller coasters seemingly (read: not predictive) come in waves/pairs. Two MC’s and a 7th last week in Rocket show he could be in line for another high finish. This is completely observational and not an exact science - you’ve been warned.

• Chez Reavie, since the Valero Championship started on March 30th, has missed just one cut, logged 7 top 40’s in those 10 tournaments with two top 10’s and an 11th place at RBC Heritage. He’s also 89th in FedEx points and a strong showing here could go a long way in securing him a spot in the playoffs. Motivation will be there.

• Sitting one point behind Mr. Reavie in the FedEx standings is Justin Lower, the 14th best putter on the PGA Tour (per the PGA Tour stats page, and again, strokes gained is NOT an exact science, more of a guideline). If Mr. Lower intends on keeping the wheels of this train moving forward, coming off an 8th place finish in Detroit to get his season back on track, he’ll need to rely on that putter to keep him going. Luckily for him, it seems to be the best part of his game. Motivation is there and he’s dirt cheap at $7,000, but can he string together another 4 rounds? He missed the cut at Traveler’s by a stroke or two, but does have a 25th at RBC Canadian and the 8th at Rocket in his last 3 tournaments played. Has he found his game? It’s a very volatile play - but 5% or lower, what you might need in a GPP if he does go off.

• I’m not going to expand too much on what I already wrote about in the player pool notes section, but man I like Doug Ghim a lot this week. His putter is marginally coming around and everything else about his game is there and then some. With Brian Gay WD’ing, Ghim is second in my full field trend table. He’s really found his game.

• Player projecting at 4% or less I have most confidence in? Kevin Streelman. Besides one absolutely disaster of a round at the Memorial, he’s been playing above average golf. He’s positive in every aspect of what I tracked this week trend wise from 32 to 16, and even has two top 20’s in his past 5 events, 4 of which were elevated or the US Open. Currently only 21 points clear of the 125th spot in the FedEx rankings (he ranks 116th), he’ll have the motivation to have a strong showing to ensure that he keeps his card for next year.

• Very rarely do I buy much into certain waves holding distinct advantages unless there are serious weather concerns that lead to delays or suspensions. This week is no different. I don’t think there is some huge advantage in either split, but I will say that if I’m targeting a first round leader bet or playing showdown, I think the better scores for Thursday will come in the morning. Make of that what you will. I don’t think this really applies to making/missing the cut either. You can use it if you’re absolutely stuck on two players and want a tenth of a percent of a tiebreaker type deal.

• Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through. You can find me on Twitter while it still works at TopherThinks or over on Blue Skies (topher2). Sincere thank you to each and every single one of you who take the time to subscribe and read my thoughts. It truly means the world to me.