Toph's Thoughts: BMW Championship
Olympia Fields Forever
I’m excited to see if Olympia Fields still has as much bite as it did three years ago.
Rory McIlroy: I think his distance will negate any accuracy shortcomings. 19th in the full field trend table with approach and ball striking coming up.
Scottie Scheffler: the putter. If you’re playing Scottie, you’re playing him as a Rory pivot and hoping he feels comfortable with the new putter. Terrible in the trend table, but still number two in the model. Just shows how good he is.
Lucas Glover: heater of a lifetime. Accurate as all hell. No holes in his current form. Can he keep up the torrid pace and a massive salary bump?
Patrick Cantlay: Likely massive chalk after winning the past two BMW’s (on different courses) but also finishing second in a playoff last week. Great playoff performer and good course fit.
Tommy Fleetwood: accuracy and ball striking a big plus. Can he actually do something when it counts? Long since been the story on Tommy.
Collin Morikawa: Accuracy but lacks distance. Putter goes hot, cold, hot cold. 12th in the trend table — approach game seems to be faltering though. Ball striking down, too.
Max Homa: 5th in the trend table. Putter preventing him from being higher, but rest of his game is sharply coming into focus. Putter still a net positive, though.
Byeong An: Major distance. Second only to Rory. 6th in trend table. Approach faltering, but a red hot putter. Decent finish in 2020 here.
Viktor Hovland: If he’s going to be the least clicked in the $10K and up range, I’m interested. Elite ball striking numbers. Game is slightly declining, but for the most part in line. Putter is his biggest current problem.
Jon Rahm: Won in 2020. Every part of his game is solid, but hasn’t been accurate. Distance might be able to overcome any deficiency in accuracy.
Brian Harman: Is he over his Open hangover? Accurate, par saver — might be the week to go back to him after a FedEx letdown.
Russ Henley: Putter has slid some. Still very accurate. Approach and ball striking sliding.
Jordan Spieth: He’s a roller coaster. Putter and approach are sliding big time, but 23rd overall in trend table with signs of overall improvement (mostly carried by his short game which can help at a place like OF).
Corey Conners: Is Canadian, which is not helpful DFS information. Accurate, good ball striker, putter coming back to life. Monitor click percentage — could be a useful piece if he’s sub 10% or very low into the double digits.
Cam Young: Bomber, but a wildcard. Terrific trend - 4th overall. Better course for him here than last week where he can use his distance to his advantage.
Tyrrell Hatton: Overall game is fine - putting still a net positive, but sliding backwards quickly. Not as lengthy as others with accuracy issues - don’t think chasing is necessary.
Cam Davis: putter getting hot at the right time - accuracy and moderate scrambling issues your main concerns.
Adam Svensson: #1 in the trend table, and by quite a margin over Glover, which is mind blowing. Putter is his biggest weakness right now, but if it snaps back to normal, might be a great option at price. Monitor click percentage.
Emiliano Grillo: Liked him last week and he did fine for price. Kind of same story here this week. Best putting year of his career.
JT Poston: I thought JT didn’t make the playoffs? Oh, different guy? This is not helpful. Poston has great approach numbers and 9th in trend table. Not super accurate, though.
Tom Kim: How’s that ankle doing? Faded/couldn’t keep up insane day 1 pace.
Si Woo Kim: What version do we get this week? Super, super accurate paired with great ball striking numbers. Putter is abysmal and bringing him down.
Xander: I dunno. Sure? Definitely a good grinder and should be able to recover if he gets out of position. Does that inspire a lot of confidence paying $10K plus?
Sungjae Im: The Korean prince just needs to get his flat stick to not miss the 5 footers and he’s right there. T-6 last week, 7th in trend table. Only problem is he has one round where he gets stuck in neutral and doesn’t separate himself or keep up with the pack. Big price bump from last week.
Keegan Bradley: Not accurate, not a great scrambler. I don’t know. Approach and ball striking on their way up in trend and 16th overall. I think he slots in if he’s under clicked and can help you get unique.
Rickie Fowler: Has seemingly cooled off some since breaking through at Rocket Mortgage. Tee to green game has plummeted.
Brendon Todd: Will length be an issue? Otherwise, I’ve got a ton of interest. Played well in 2020 here and is super cheap. Repeat after me: monitor his click percentage. 3rd in trend table!
Lee Hodges: Riding a red hot putter. Again, will come down to clicks, but not someone I think you should be chasing.
Hideki: Great 2020 here. Came on strong to even make it here and will look to keep building to try and get to East Lake - will be hyper motivated. Still a terrible putter.
Sepp Straka: Multiple bad weeks now. Game sliding everywhere, 31st in trend table, but not significantly enough that it’s a major concern. Are people burned out on him burning him? Might be a leverage play with his mix of length and accuracy if people are off of him due to bad recent performance.
Good luck and congrats on getting 6/6 through.