Toph's Thoughts: 3M Open
Who is trending and where
I’m going to lean into the trend table a little more as I’m writing this piece directly after I wrote the piece on the Player Pool although you’re seeing this a day later than that on Wednesday.
Cam Young’s equipment change did him a load of good. I *believe* he went back to some old faithfuls after trying something new and it’s shown - after a couple months of middling returns, Cam posted a 6th at John Deere and an 8th at The Open. He’s also 4th in my full field trend table, finding massive gains in literally every aspect of his game. Finishing 2nd in the player pool, his last 16 rounds have been nothing short of fantastic and his game is on a sharp upswing. Again - biggest question I have is fatigue. He’s also likely to be clicked more than twice that of Finau, although check your most trusted projections there. The only fade case is if you think the travel will affect him and if he’s projecting well over 25%.
Trevor Cone has made massive strides recently. The rookie, who has been state side and didn’t go oversees, made a huge charge at Barbasol and made the cut at Barracuda, has now made the cut 4/5 times since the start of June. While he hasn’t made tremendous noise at the top of the leaderboard outside of Barbasol (a 3rd place finish), he’s put on massive gains in both ball striking and tee to green. His putter has been his biggest weakness, but as you’ve read a thousand times already, the greens here are incredibly forgiving and easy to gain strokes with the flat stick. He’s a nice sub $7K piece.
Again - I’m enamored with Keith Mitchell this week. I’m absolutely sure this will bite me in the back side and I will be cursing his name 11 minutes into his round and a double bogey, but it’s all about the vibes you get Monday through Wednesday, right? Mitchell is gaining close to 1.5 strokes in trend and they are all in key areas this week. His off the tee game is so heads and tails above most of the field, that I just don’t see himself making any mistakes that will severely cost him. It’s a get right spot for his putter and he got his jet lag out of the way by returning to the states last week. A fatigued MC in a different scoring type event at the Barracuda will hopefully chase some clicks away.
Beau Hossler is another name that kind of fits the middle of the pack in the player pool but higher in the trend table prototype we’re taking a look at this week. Kind of an odd price, but his putter is showing signs of improvement and he’s really making strides with his approach and ball striking game. Could be a decent pivot, albeit a few more dollars, from Akshay Bhatia who was a WD on Monday and won’t command clicks in that same price range.
I talked about him in the player pool, but I’m buying in on Adam Hadwin this week. I think a couple weeks off, a solid showing in the trend table and not having to deal with extreme travel will have him ready to play. Again, honing in on positive gains in approach, ball striking and tee to green games, he’s showing all the right positive movements there and is one of the stronger putters on Tour.
He’s nowhere near the player pool and didn’t survive the first cut, but we were big fans of Carson Young. Maybe he was burnt out, but he’s almost the very last name in the trend table. His game has gone south quickly. At a $6,800 price tag, a lot of people seem to click him more than industry expectations - I’ll let others chase this week.
Right next to Carson Young in the red depths of the trend table are Tony Finau and Justin Thomas. JT didn’t even make the player pool. The only way I’m looking at either of these guys is if Finau is 5% or less and if JT is literally maybe 1-2%. There’s just no justification for playing either of them right now (incoming playoff between JT and Tony Finau in which both are declared the winner).
Cam Davis is trending backwards as well - made the player pool, but use caution. Trend isn’t as severe as Tony or JT.
Hideki, believe it or not, is also near the bottom of the trend table, although his is mostly around the green, which isn’t as vital at TPC-TC, and tee to green, but expanding that, he’s still got an extremely high T2G number. I’m not concerned with trend when you look at the full picture. Moreso with any travel fatigue. Are you fatigued with my ongoing use of the word fatigue?
I think a lot of people will want to play Eric Cole and he’s headed backwards trend wise. His tee to green game is taking one of the biggest hits, but unlike Hideki, Cole was moderate at best and is coming back to average to below average in that department. I’m fine letting others chase. Only potential caution I have where I’d want sprinkles if I’m making multiple lineups is Cole not only has the shortest pants on Tour, he has one of the best putters, as well.
Kevin Yu’s game has stayed pretty steady - he’s worth a longer longer look for your lineups. My biggest concern is that he’s not the most accurate of players and if he gets at all wayward here, he can make large numbers due to the amount of water around the course. But he makes a ton of birdies.
Greyson Sigg - 4 of 5 cuts made in his last 5 tournaments, a MC on the number last week at Barracuda after a horrendous Thursday but a massive Friday push. A T-7 last year here at TPC-TC and 9th overall in my trend table, which includes a massively improving putter. A bargain at $7,200 - worth a long look in your lineups.
Good luck & god speed - let’s get 6/6 through. I am available for questions on Twitter or whatever the hell it is that Elon is calling it now. My handle is at TopherThinks.