The Open: Trend Table
Go get that
Welcome, friends, old and new.
Hopefully by the time you’re reading this when it drops at 8 AM Eastern (the good lord’s time zone) you’ll have already been up for four to five hours and have two coffees in you in preparation for our last major of the year.
For those that may be new here, the trend table is a piece that takes the entire field (if we have enough data on the golfer) and sees where who is hot and who isn’t, compared on a baseline of their own game. Sepp Straka is obviously a better golfer than a random amateur or newcomer, but may be dead last in the trend table because his current game is so much worse than his normal baseline.
In an effort to continue to try and provide you solid coverage, today’s article is going to be free, but tomorrow’s actual player pool will be behind a paywall. Don’t fret, it’s just $5 a month. A lot of time and resources go into this, so any support is greatly appreciated.
It takes a disgusting sicko, and you reading this qualifies as just that, to wake up in the middle of the night, not just to pee because you’re old with a poor prostate, but to watch golf and be tilting your 18% chalk being +1 through three at 3:30 AM.
It really paints a picture, doesn’t it?
One of our last chance for a golf Milly - let’s go get that (thanks, Spieth.)
Let’s see what’s trending.
Right off the rip, one of the more aggravating plays I’ve had in the past month is Jackson Suber. I’m not saying the stats are lying, but I’m not fully buying in yet in one of his first times across the pond.
I wish I clicked a lot more Victor Perez last week. I severely limited him because of LIV instead of just trusting it.
Wyndham has been money, we all know that.
Aaron Rai, I expect to return to form, even after a missed cut at the Scottish. Early runs of the model have him at #1 — I’m not sure I expect him to stay there when I layer in more data, but it says what it says.
Reitan has been disappointing. Niemann … no one ever knows what’s going to happen with him, so who the hell knows.
Justin Thomas is hooping.
McKibbin caught some fire last week — Northern Ireland guy, familiar with conditions and TRUE links style golf, not the Americanized version at Renaissance.
I am still pissed off at Andrew Novak for his bowel evacuating performance at the John Deere.
I see Molinari’s name pop up like a once a year and that’s around the same time that I remember he exists. We’ll all always remember him rinsing one at 12 in Augusta in 2019.
Brian Harman (that’s Open Championship winner Brian Harman to you, pal) sighting! Game is trending upwards and he excels at courses like these!
I think I’m going to have to get into a fist fight with Patrick Cantlay at some point. It’s the only way. How in the hell is he still positive in the data?
Look, not for nothing, but Casey Jarvis has won twice this year on the DP World Tour, had a T-38 at Myrtle Beach, a T-65 at the PGA Championship & a T-21 last week at the Scottish Open. DIRT cheap at $6,000. Sprinkling him in to your MME builds may be worth a gander.
The “zero” golfers you can correctly assume just don’t have enough data to pull accurate trends.
Ludvig showing signs of leaking, which isn’t all that surprising. He hasn’t been on his game at all.
Si Woo coming back to his baseline and he was a leverage dart for us last week. I don’t know if we’ll get that lucky this week from a roster standpoint, but we’ll see. I just don’t see a world where he’s under 10% with his name recognition and being under $7,000.
Scottie! Made cut streak ends. Have to assume he comes out with an absolute vengeance. You’ll be able to play him, cause his salary has come down a ton and you have an obscene amount of golfers under $7,000 that will give you the relief needed to comfortably play him.
Chalk bomb Nicolai Hojgaard didn’t fare too poorly, with a T-26 last week. Going to depend on clicks. He’s also absurdly cheap.
Cam Young is cratering.
Cam Smith & Jon Rahm still look lost.
Homa is trying like hell to regain form. He had a great John Deere and some other good performances. Seemed like he was going through the motions a bit at ISCO and that could have just been to prepare to head over seas. Still logged a T-39.
Akshay is interesting cause this type of course suits his game.
Henley’s trend sucks, but elite accuracy and terrific putter, always a good combination at The Open.
Spieth - the site of the infamous “go get that.” … what I wouldn’t give to have this lunatic back in contention. Where as Hatton is the golfer most likely to kill a spectator with his bare hands, Spieth is most likely to kill one with a tee shot.
Xander … politely, what the f—.
Wait, Sepp Straka really is dead last in trends? I was just busting his chops, but hey, if the shoe fits.
See you tomorrow for the player pool.