the Memorial: Player Pool
Great milkshakes, bad hats
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At some point, we’re going to have to come together as a golf community and stop the insanity that the hats at these golf events have become.
I nearly reached my breaking point at PGA Championship with a hat the said “The Jawn” and look — I know it’s Philly culture, but just a terrible hat.
I think I may finally end up in a padded room after seeing “Jack” in upside down letters this week at the Memorial.
No more.
Please don’t alert the newspapers that I’m mad.
Muirfield is a tough challenge, with winning scores staying in the high single digits and ever so occasionally breaking into the low double digits.
It demands every shot in your bag and will crucify you if you don’t find the short grass.
This weeks player pool is a bit more muted, as such, capped at 30 players due to the strict rules I placed on performance.
To find the players on this list, I demanded accuracy, at minimum a positive around the green game (50 yards and in), and a strong overall game. I’ve even added in approach proximity from outside of 100 yards ranks from the PGA Tour stats into the sheet here to get a feel, although that is a broad range so use it as more of a guideline and, if necessary, a tie breaker.
Also — important to note — the Memorial, while a signature event, DOES have a cut. Top 50 + ties and anyone within 10 shots of the leader. This does not auto qualify as a 6/6 tournament.
I’m honestly floored to see Scottie come in third place here, although we’re kind of splitting hairs.
Cam Young doesn’t have the strongest course history here, a track that actually has some stickiness in terms of past player performance. However, he is playing likely the best golf of his life this season, and there’s no reason to think he can’t compete here. With no Rory in this player pool (solid course history, but a wildcard off the tee and price comparison to history - left him off), Cam can be a good pivot.
Ludvig’s under the hood numbers are out of this world, as you can see. His two lowest finishes since the end of February are T-17 and T-21, with a T-8 being the only other non top 5 finish out of 8 events. Just playing insane golf. He’s going to breakthrough at some point.
Scottie is Scottie and is the back to back winner here. If you can build a lineup you like with him in it, fire away.
I liked Xander starting to climb the trend table, and his results — save a T-60 at Truist — have been just a smidge behind Ludvig’s in terms of impressiveness over the same period of time. He does have an ok, but middling, course history here, but I think he should definitely be in play.
Matt Fitzpatrick is fine - catching a bunch of clicks, though.
I liked Cantlay a lot yesterday, and then saw how much attention he was getting from the field. He’s a solid play, but this feels like an avoidance spot based on what the field is going to be playing. If you want a piece of Cantlay action, just bet him in a finishing position ladder. That sentence was a lot more erotic than I intended it to be.
Alex Fitzpatrick looks to be a good value piece, however — should be noted — he’s never played here. I’m sure his brother will be giving him plenty of tips. Still, have to assume he can keep it in the fairway enough times to stay within the top 50 and let you see the weekend sub $7,000.
Henley, Alex Smalley, Si Woo — they’re all priced similarly (save Smalley, he’s much cheaper) and all have similarities in trend, clicks, score, etc. — the book is out on these three and they’re all safe options.
Min Woo has a bad trend, but the rest of his under the hood stuff looks fine. Three straight top 20’s, but he is priced a tad high for my liking.
Justin Thomas’ best finish here was last year — a T-31 — and he also has a MC on his card the last four years. With the amount of clicks he’s looking at, feels like a good fade spot.
Fleetwood — I dunno. Probably not? Two top 20 finishes here the past two years, though.
Justin Rose is probably safe — big old bowl of meh in terms of his course history, but did log a T-10 at the PGA Championship. Low-ish clicks in a limited field and there are a couple other chalk bombs priced near him.
Bud Cauley’s under the hood numbers look solid. I kind of wish he didn’t withdraw last week because that leaves a bit of doubt in terms of what’s going on because they notoriously don’t report on anything. Still, a T-39 here last year, he’s dirt cheap, he’s coming in under 10% and in 2019 he logged a T-9 here. Solid value play.
If Spieth comes in mid teen’s, you can probably avoid him. Looks like the field understands Rickie’s yearly flash in the pan has come and gone.
Corey Conners has decent enough history here — three top 25’s in the past four years — and he’s not getting clicks or attention. He’s probably about $800 less than he should be salary wise, too. Very intriguing click.
Sepp Straka is your chalk bomb of the week. Very strong course history, the underlying numbers are there. However, consider this — he has a T-4 at Cadillac in his last six starts, but also two MC’s and nothing else above T-41. Worth taking a risk on the fade to be different from the field.
Lowry is safe, but unexciting.
Nick Taylor is $900 cheaper than Straka, with a T-4 here last year, solid course history, and is carrying a fraction of the clicks. I like Taylor a ton as your value option.
Harris English is a great pivot off of Straka.
Rai, Noren, McCarty & Bridgeman are all kind of “sure” plays — no real confidence, but safe enough, with McCarty & Bridgeman certainly the more volatile of the two. Rai did just win the PGA Championship, but does the first major and all that comes with it cause a hangover?
Lastly, Keegan Bradley — Captain America quietly has four straight made cuts here, a T-7 last year, no clicks, a dirt cheap price tag and a handful of decent finishes recently. Worth a look as a value option.
Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through!