Scottish Open: Player Pool
We finally head across the pond
Quick programming note: due to a poorly timed family vacation happening next week, it is unlikely I will have access to providing a player pool. I will do my absolute best given that it’s a major, but in case I am unable to breakaway to put the pool together, bear in mind that it may not be coming. I should have the betting 6 pack link available as the fine folks at Sportsbook Review asked me to come back again for The Open. I will say that it’s extremely likely that this player pool will be eerily similar to next weeks given the field is nearly identical, we’re just adding Scottie Scheffler to the top of the board next week. But again, I’ll try. My wife may actively try to drown me and/or tie me to the tracks of a roller coaster to one of the theme parks we’re visiting with the kids, but I’ll try.
As for this week, we return to The Renaissance Club & the Scottish Open, a crossover event with the World Tour that has gained in popularity among the PGA elite given they can come over, get used to playing in this area of the world and the time change that comes with it and not feel jet lagged or unprepared for The Open.
Tom Kim got his break playing in this event a few years back with a finish strong enough to earn him some starts on the PGA Tour and turned those into wins and a household name. Xander won here two years ago and Rory last year in a thrilling finish to out pace hometown hero Robert MacIntyre. It’s a great event and Scotland is the home of golf. The aura is unmatched. The course itself has both traditional links feels and non-traditional items, especially when not on the sea holes. If the weather cooperates, the players can absolutely light this place up. If the weather is your standard Scottish weather, it becomes an absolute beast. It’s going to be cold & rainy, but the wind doesn’t seem to be too egregious. Distance was already kind of a separator here, with cut makers averaging over 5 yards more per drive than non cut makers last year. It may not seem that significant, but if the longer players are playing one to two clubs less than the shorter hitters, it’s certainly an advantage. With the colder temperatures, I am leaning more into the bigger hitters if possible.
Not shocking to see the heads of the class being Xander & Rory and you don’t need a huge dissertation on them being good plays. They’re the past two winners here. They’re also probably the two most clicked names in the field. Can we find a way to click both? Unlikely, unless we went super stars & scrubs, and I think there’s a few names in here that allow us that potential.
Collin isn’t super long off the tee, but he’s won The Open before so he can play this style of golf and the rest of his game is outstanding. He is having one of the best statistical years of his career.
Ludvig is a stud. Studvig, if you will. He’s great.
Davis Thompson, hero of the John Deere Classic, finds his way here and has been playing lights out golf. Will fatigue play a role? In the past two months, he’s had The Travelers off, and that’s it, and obviously played late into Sunday and had the winner’s obligations of media & trophy presentation, etc. I’m not saying he’s a bad play, I’m saying there’s a plausible case of a letdown.
Corey Conners placed a T-19 here last year and hasn’t finished outside of the top 30 in an event he’s played in since the RBC Heritage. His clicks are being held relatively in check, hovering at about 10% or so. Could be a good leverage play.
Justin Thomas has actually had a solid year and his recent performances have been good sans an abysmal US Open. Also in low double digits, I think he’s solid.
Rai has won here before in 2020, and also been cut the past two years. So, a little all over the map. Fatigue a potential question mark here as well, but no doubt playing some of the best golf of his career.
Hovland is an interesting case. Placed a t-20 here last year, started rounding into form this year about Wells Fargo, had a monster PGA Championship performance and then MC’d the US Open after a miserable first round. Bounced back with a top 20 at the Travelers. Not getting a massive amount of clicks up at the top of the price scale & could be a good leverage pivot.
Tom Kim has been studly here. A third place two years ago and a T-6 last year. Finally took a week off last week, but is completely back on his game, the MC at Rocket Mortgage notwithstanding.
Hoge seems like an ok play. He’s not a world beater, but he’s cheap and no one is playing him. Usually can be counted on for a made cut (17/19 this year) and with a top 20 at this event last year, if you’re getting a top 30 out of him this year at price and with no one on him, you’re extremely happy.
Tom McKibbin is my dude. He was at the US Open, too, if you recall, and being from Northern Ireland, is extremely used to these conditions and course type. I’m shocked he’s getting low double digit clicks, but still - nothing I’m concerned about. All systems go.
Hideki, Harman & Sungjae are all kind of in the same boat for me. Really, really good players that don’t bomb it off the tee, but are strong enough elsewhere to compete everywhere they play. They’re all high single digit to low double digit in clicks, all good values, etc. - worth noting that Sungjae did play the Deere and flew into Scotland on a red-eye Sunday night.
I saw some shakiness out of Sepp at the Deere, so a little uneasy and his trend is also pointing that same direction. No one is really playing him, though, so that’s his silver lining.
Min Woo is a stud & his power will be a huge benefit in these conditions. Will definitely get click attention, but a great play.
Seamus played the Deere, but did take Rocket off, so hopefully is still somewhat fresh. I think he’s a great play at price.
Was shocked to see Adam Hadwin make the list. I guess he’s ok as a cheap flier, but he’s been average at best this year.
I like Bez a bit more than Griffin, the latter of which has been playing a ton so I go back to the fatigue factor.
This section is always more fliers & fillers as is.
Ferguson I thought would be getting more love being a Scottish player in the Scottish Open. Quite literally won the BMW last week and placed top 30’s the previous two world tour events as well. Playing extremely well going into his countries Open and is in mid single digits. Fire away!
Guido has turned it on the past month and made the cut (with a terrible finish last year). MC’d last week at BMW, but in chronological order, had finishes of 22nd, 1st, 8th, 24th & 2nd on the World Tour dating back to the start of May. At his price, you could certainly do worse.
Ben An can eviscerate the ball off the tee, so I’m into him for that purpose.
Noren & Homa get a “meh” from me.
I like Rasmus Hojgaard as a pivot off of his chalkier twin brother.
Julien Guerrier costs absolutely nothing and has five top 25’s or better out of six world tour tournaments since the start of May and not a soul is playing him.
The rest of the board on down gets a “sure, why not” from me as no one really stands out for good or bad reasons and if you have a hunch on them, knock yourself out and give them a click.
Good luck this week, let’s get 6/6 through. Thank God Greyson Sigg isn’t playing this week. *Checks the ISCO field*…. oh no.