Rocket Classic: Trend Table
Motor City Madness
Howdy folks. I’m back from vacation and will actually be deep diving this trend table as well as tomorrow’s player pool, as normal.
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As someone who lives in Michigan and frequents the Rocket Classic every year, I am ecstatic to see the remodel of the course and how it’s going to play this year. Par drops from 72 to 70, as two of the par 5’s were converted into over 500 yard par 4’s.
The greens were re-done as originally designed by Donald Ross in the initial iteration of the Detroit Golf Club.
The fake pond was removed in front of the 14th green and around the course, mass bunkers and fescue have been added taking it back to Ross’ original design, as well.
While I don’t think this will suddenly be Pinehurst #2, and birdies will still remain plentiful, it shouldn’t get into the mid -20’s as the winning score.
Let’s take a look at our trends:
Ruffles data points appear to be just from Myrtle Beach this year, so take this with an enormous grain of salt.
Since, and including, The Masters, Nico Echavarria has missed two cuts and it was The Masters and the PGA Championship. While he’s failed to truly capitalize on those opportunities - his best finish being a T-6 at Charles Schwab, he’s been consistent in seeing the weekends and has moderate success here at Detroit Golf Club, with a T-6 last year, although I will maintain that we should be using course history very lightly with the remodel. Still, knowing DGC as I do, and seeing the remodel, it’s not a complete overhaul and should still have a ton of the same skeleton to it that should provide familiarity.
Ben Griffin has been solid, still a fine play here.
Grillo had a strong 3M last week with a T-7 and posted T-26 or better in the three tournaments prior to the 3M. Good value play.
Aaron Wise, playing on a medical, had a decent showing at John Deere, before coming alive at the alt events while everyone else was across the pond. Swiftly got the axe from a 3M birdie fest with a 72-77 start. The trend up is real, but there’s some context to it and just a miserable showing last week.
Wyndham Clark has been one of the most on fire golfers on the planet, and his new arm candy is from Michigan. Can certainly see him taking this one seriously because of that.
Jackson Suber logged a T-6 here last year and has been playing lights out golf, sans the MC at 3M because of a terrible Friday. Could have been jet lag from The Open, but c’est la vie. I expect him to be a popular mid $7K value pick.
Keegan has been a cut making machine and logged a bunch of T-30 or better finishes recently. Got his butt kicked at The Open, but at least made the cut. Plays in Detroit a lot, so a lot of familiarity with the course.
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen has quietly made 7 straight cuts and is coming off of a T-9 at The Open and a T-20 at 3M. Has only finished outside of the top 40 twice in those seven tournaments.
Michael Kim rocked a 59 at the 3M, but outside of that, just didn’t do much else in his three tournament days. Has the skill, not the consistency.
Finau has won here before, but looks pretty broken right now.
I wonder if Lucas Glover is going to walk around shoeless again. Incredibly entertaining.
Bez has six straight made cuts and some decent finishes - may be worth a look.
Potgieter won here in a 5 hole playoff last year, and on his winning putt, CBS showed your boy in the grandstands. I’m always around the action.
Gotterup is a stud with the game to match.
I think this course sets up really well for what Si Woo does best. Target golf, strong ball striking. If his putter cooperates, watch out.
Michael Brennan made the cut at all four majors, which is pretty gnarly. Only a handful of MC’s all season and one top 10 to his name, but a bit of a heavier price tag at $7,900.
We are fans of Zach Bauchou here at this Substack.
Pontus Nyholm is super cheap and has made his last four cuts, including a T-39 last week at 3M.
Hideki started coming alive big time on the weekend at 3M, definitely worth keeping an eye on, but that may cause him to steam a bit.
Dan Brown was a WD after making this chart.
JJ Spaun has been very solid this year and in the initial wave of data alone, currently Sits as the #1 player in my model, but that still has some layering to be done — but screams value right now.
Sungjae, for as much as I love him, seems truly broken right now. Just can’t find it. For what it’s worth, he’s performed well here before and the course sets up well for his game (when he’s actually on his game). Extremely cheap at $7,000 for the type of talent he has, even if it hasn’t shown itself this year.
I think Jake Knapp spoiled any sort of buy low this week with a T-13 last week at 3M. We’ll see.
Let’s keep an eye on Seamus Power, shall we? T-11 at Corales a couple weeks ago and a T-10 last week at 3M. That putter trend is other worldly, so if he’s finding something, a hot putter on fresh greens is worth taking a look at.
Russ Henley is fine and obviously Jackson Koivun is, too.
Cam Young finally popped back in a huge way at The Open. This is a good course for him. Has two top 10’s here at DGC.
Cam Davis has won twice a here, but has been BRUTAL this year, making only 4 cuts. I think the only thing you can potentially take a swing at is course history, but even then, that’s a hell of a swing.
Chris Kirk has made the cut here the past five years and been T-17 or better in four of those five, including a T-2 last year (lost in playoff). Has made two cuts in a row, and comes in with a 69, 64, 69 last three rounds from 3M, so may have found something in his game.
Xander is currently on the outside of the model. I expect that to change after layering in the final pieces, but even though the T-18 at The Open was nice, he still MC’d at the Scottish, outside of the top 50 at Travelers and just non-Xander like results elsewhere. His story is going to depend solely on click rates as the second highest priced golfer on the board.
I usually have some interest in Nick Taylor as a value piece in most tournaments. He’s been solid enough, but nothing spectacular.
Rickie has been the unofficial tournament host here since it’s inception due to his partnership with Rocket. Returned to the winner circle here. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him play well here, trend notwithstanding.
Spieth better make the damn cut so I can see him on Sunday. Going to have to try and see him at the Pro-Am on Wednesday, as well, and hope he doesn’t drill my kid in the head with one of his drives.
Jason Day was a withdrawal after the making of this chart.
Hand to God didn’t even realize Brendon Todd was still playing on the PGA Tour and not entirely sure how he got in this field.
We’ll see you tomorrow for the player pool.