Rocket Classic: Player Pool
Now everybody from the 3-1-3
Today’s player pool will be free as a thank you for your continued support of this Substack space. My only request is you check out this highlighted link: Mrs. Smith’s Amazon Class Wishlist. Mrs. Smith happens to be my wife and she is an elementary school teacher here in Michigan. While basic needs are met for kids, that’s all that’s met and there is a lot more that goes into teaching in early education, including games and enrichment that tie to STEM projects, helpful items for the class, and other items that will truly help expand the experience for this years students and beyond. If you’ve been helped by this Substack at all, consider a token item from the list. It’d be greatly appreciated by our family and for all of the kids that will pass through her classroom.
While you’re reading this, I am currently walking around Detroit Golf Club as my six year old chases down his favorite hockey player that’s playing in the pro am. I’m not paying attention because I have my tape measurer and I’m investigating the length of the rough and the new fescue.
It’s a service to the people, and I, above all else, am a man of the people.
Let’s dive into the player pool in the final Rocket Classic, it’s most stacked field to date.
TIER I
No surprise to see Cam Young at the top of our charts. He definitely had a dip in performance after winning the Cadillac, but rebounded and nearly stole the Claret Jug two weeks ago as the rest of the Sunday challengers around him faltered, save Ryan Fox. Young has strong course history here, and as mentioned yesterday, a lot of the course is going to play similarly to years past, scoring will just be altered with the drop to par 70. The skeleton of the course remains. Early reports are that the greens have softness to them, even being brand new, and there could be an emphasis on putting as the new greens really emphasize the subtleties Ross intended.
Spaun was a big value piece for me yesterday and is slightly dislodged to the two spot. He’s carrying a fair amount of clicks, but I still really like his game with this course.
Wyndham is enjoying his time with his Michigan native girlfriend and even threw out the first pitch at the Tigers game on Tuesday night. Terrific putting ranks and data right now. Strong play.
Gotterup is terrific, don’t have much to add except that’s he’s one of the four-ish players right now I have breaching 20% (Young, Gotterup, Knapp, Koivun).
Cantlay … I dunno, man. I honestly don’t know. The only thing I can say about Patrick Cantlay is that one day all of us will be dead and when that day comes, I’m not sure anyone of us will have figured out when the right time to play Patrick Cantlay is.
Griffin is fine! Let him loose. Solid putter, good overall game. Mid teens doesn’t seem like he’ll steam too heavily.
Keegan Bradley, if our composite scores are accurate, might be one of the biggest value plays on the board at sub 10%, a long and steady course history. I don’t love the awkward price at $7,800, but probably why he’s sub 10%. T-35 or better in five of his last six tournaments. That’ll play.
Both Si Woo & Russ Henley being low teens/low double digits have me wanting to be overweight on the field on both. Outstanding putters, tremendously accurate. Excellent course fits. Play them both heavily.
Jake Knapp, as called yesterday in the trend table article, has spiked into the 20%’s and isn’t as much of a value. The play itself is fine in a vacuum, but with the inconsistencies, at that click rate, mayyyyy be best to keep him just in cash games, but you do you.
TIER II
Suber & Kohles have been playing lights out golf recently, although Suber is more of the roller coaster ride. Suber has the T-6 here last year.
Kohles has five straight T-29’s or better, including two top ten’s. Kohles is 97th in the FedEx points standings and needs to keep charging to secure full status next year.
Højgaard has the distance to overwhelm this course, and it sounds as if the rough still isn’t overly penal. Will his putter cooperate?
Koivun - we all know the story here after last week. Going to get a lot of clicks. He needs to keep pushing to secure the playoffs for himself.
Could use a Johnny Keefer flop lag week after a late charge at making the cut on Friday fell short by a couple of short missed putts. Still think he’s a strong play.
Eric Cole thrives in these type of events and his putting is other worldly. He is also in the first group off on Thursday morning, so I think he’s a solid dart throw at first round leader when the course will be playing soft and he has the purest conditions. Projecting at 6% right now, I think he’s an excellent overall play in all formats.
Ryan Gerard is an excellent putter, but getting a lot of clicks coming off a T-9 at The Open and a mid $8K salary. I think he’s fine, but not 100% sure you need to be overweight on him. Still think he’s a solid play.
Xander is in the top 5, at least, of overall talent in this field, but just hasn’t performed like Xander this year. Outstanding leverage click if you’re not playing into the high Young/Gotterup clicks. If you’re an MME type player, Xander is the kind of guy I’d go overweight on.
Ghim & Matt Wallace can’t putt, but the other auxiliary stats say they’re plays. I’d tread cautiously.
TIER III
Thorbjornsen had a T4 here last year and oodles of talent. Getting a lot of clicks, however.
Brennan is a solid under 10% play - a little wary of his putter, but is a cut maker if you’re looking for safety.
Mouw cannot putt. Was the worst putter in the field last week at 3M and it cost him the weekend. I would be very sparse in my exposure.
Davis Thompson is getting some value clicks, but I think Horschel right next to him is roughly the same type of play and coming in at $700 cheaper and half the clicks.
Bridgeman is fine and has some decent course history here and sub 10%. No arguments from me.
Hideki has done pretty decently here in the past, had a T-13 here last year, and a big charge last week at 3M. Good play, but carrying mid teens in his clicks.
Lastly, Harris English at 5% is a thing because everyone else around him is soaking up the rest of the clicks. PHENOMENAL leverage play in the $8K range when everyone else around him is getting the attention. Will caution that he does have three missed cuts in his last four, but they were two majors and the Scottish. Leverage, leverage, leverage.
Good luck this week, as we say goodbye to the Rocket Classic. Get 6/6 through.