RBC Canadian: Player Pool

North of the border, eh?

This is very seemingly a straight forward week.

The only surprises, so to speak, of player pool omissions are Adam Hadwin & Mackenzie Hughes. Defending champ, Nick Taylor, also doesn’t make the cut.

Those are the only 3 priced at $8,000 or more that didn’t make it. Hughes, digging deeper, is probably the most surprising omission of the three, but his recent approach numbers have been meh at best. Still, he’s been solid enough over the past two months that if you’re playing him I think it’s ok.

Taylor & Hadwin are both deep down the trend table, with Taylor being near dead last. He hasn’t logged a top 30 in over two months and missed two cuts in his last 5 tournaments, two of them being no cut limited field events in which he still didn’t place a top 40.

Hadwin logged a top 5 two months ago at the Valspar, but also bombed out of the Players and doesn’t have an additional top 40 dating all the way back to February.

There’s something to be said that they’re all Canadian & this tournament will bring out their very best, but just judging on raw data and the information we have, plus their expected roster numbers, I’m fine executing the full fade.

Hamilton Golf & Country Club is a short course, designed to test accuracy & the flat stick, but doesn’t prevent bombers from being able to take a lot of angles out and still find success. Rory had a runaway win here a few years ago the last time Hamilton hosted the Canadian national open.

I wanted to get a sense of who was finding fairways and also finding the green/fringe in regulation when they did miss the fairway, so I leaned into good drive percentage ranks on Tour and also scrambling ranks to get a sense of who is saving par. With short grass/fairway replacing a lot of bunkers and finding tight windows if you miss the green, I want to see who isn’t hurting themselves when they find themselves out of position.

I do think that this is a tough putting course, so I will award tiebreakers in decision making to strong putters.

First up, the heads of the class:

Absolutely no shock that some of the top names in price are at the top of the list here, with an ok, but not world beating, field.

Rory is Rory and this isn’t a major championship, so he’s probably going to play really well! He’s won here before and he’s also chalk. It’s up to you how you want to play him in single entry stuff, but whatever decision you come to for multiple lineups is going to either have to be massively under or overweight the field on him.

Noren has every peripheral I’m looking for, I think he’s a rock solid play.

Tommy has been on an absolute heater this year. At some point he’s going to breakthrough. Lost last year (different course) in a heartbreaking playoff to the aforementioned Nick Taylor that got Adam Hadwin absolutely bodied by a security guard.

Theegala is who he is. A super talented and super volatile/aggressive player who is either going to top 5 or make the cut but not place top 40, which is what you want to avoid at his price point. Given that he’ll likely be the most clicked name behind Rory, you’re betting on him to outshine Rory & Tommy if you’re clicking him.

Conners is one of the most famous Canadian golfers and as such, will be overwhelmingly clicked, maybe even the most in $9,000 range.

Rai costs too much for what he is and every time he’s a good course fit, he MC’s or is ho-hum. But… data likes him!

My biggest concern with Lowry, Mitchell & Yu are they have been terrible with the putter. But, the rest of the data suggests they’re fine.

I really, really like Davis Thompson this week. I’ll likely be playing him. He had one bad hiccup at the CJ Cup a few weeks back, but the past two months have been terrific, with a 2nd place finish at Myrtle Beach, two additional top 20’s and a 21st at Houston. Form is there and performance at some similar style courses are also there.

Cam Young is Jordan Spieth but with a beard/hairier. So… make of that what you will.

Everything suggests, again, that Nate Lashley should be a play, but he keeps missing the cut by one stroke. I dunno. He can win in birdie fests (his only win on Tour at the inaugural Rocket Mortgage Championship) but he’s missed three cuts in a row. Still, the profile is there and nobody is likely playing him or clicking him with any sort of confidence.

Svensson is chalkier than I imagined, but he’s cheap and while he hasn’t had a glut of high finishes (only one top 10 this year and only two additional top 30’s), he hasn’t missed a cut in two months. Trend is super high and his approach & ball striking game has been lights out.

Our next wave, or the more volatile wave of players, has a lot of familiar names as well.

Down in this region, I want to lean into at least average putters if possible.

Guys like Kraft & Garnett that are middle of the pack relative to the field in putting, but have outstanding accuracy/approach/ball striking games, are guys I would take stabs at, especially being as low clicked as they are.

Tom Kim’s peripherals are junk, but the caveat is that they’re improving week over week and he is starting to regain form and show a lot of life. I think he’ll be clicked a little more than we may expect, but I like him again. The trend is there and he’s on his way back to the Tom Kim we are familiar with.

I’m probably out on Cauley/Novak.

Ben Martin! Again! No one ever plays him and he’s perfectly fine yet again this week. Another top 40 at a tough course last week. He just plays good, solid golf, gets you a top 40 and no one plays him and he’s ultra cheap.

I’m not sure why I kept CT Pan in here, but… here he is I guess?

Sam Burns looks like a solid fade (which means he’ll win now.)

Best of luck, eh? Let’s get 6/6 through.