Player Pool: Traveler's Championship
Draft Kings Players/players to bet for PGA DFS
As a father, I was inundated with family obligations on Sunday (and golf watching) to be able to recap the US Open player pool. The top half of the player pool was as strong as ever. I had mentioned I had the most confidence in Wyndham Clark (hey!) and above, and they went 15/17 through to the cut, including the winner. All in all, it was a 65% hit rate on 42 golfers and some of the deeper pocket guys didn’t make it. So, not as strong as usual standards from cut makers, but the top half carried the weight for us if we stayed in that pocket. Overall, 9 of the top 13 golfers on the leader board could be found in the player pool, including Austin Eckroat!
Keeping this in mind, when I post the player pool from here on out, I think I’ll be a little redundant with weekly reminders that the top half of the pool is likely to be the strongest in terms of value, cut made odds, etc. and the lower half will be more GPP type fliers with boom or bust potential.
For this weeks Traveler’s Championship, it gives us another (and last) elevated event, so the field is incredibly strong and because of that, we’re going to see a lot of the same names. Good golfers tend to stay good! It’s odd.
TPC River Highlands, our track this week, is a very short course by Tour standards, checking in at only 6,800 yards. It’s a very tree lined technical track with water coming into play on four or five holes. Strong wedge play is going to be a must here and fairways are slightly wider than that of Harbour Town, site of the RBC Heritage. The rough is 4”+ long and very penal, so while golfers that carry quite a bit of distance aren’t discounted here, you’ll want to make sure you’re landing in the short grass and not forcing layups. The green layouts are very tight with tricky pin placements partnering with the rough to form the course's best defenses. There will be birdies, as the winning score will likely come in the -14/-17 type range, but accurate players with good approach can very much contend. Chez Reavie has won here and is a consistent cut maker.
Here’s our top half — again, these are the folks that I feel most confident in with regards to not only making the cut, but contending. It’s going to be a lot of familiar names.
Kevin Yu is incredibly intriguing to me, but comes with a full on warning that this is his first tournament since knee surgery to repair torn meniscus in February. He’s probably the most volatile name out of the top 19 due to that, but has plus accuracy and elite ball striking numbers. If he feels confident in that knee and has been able to play/practice enough to shed some rust, that price tag is mouth watering. Yu also leads the PGA Tour in Good Drive Percentage, for what it’s worth.
The two players I’ve been able to get a feel for click wise that are projecting 20%+ are Scottie Scheffler (duh, he’s the best golfer on the planet) and Patrick Cantlay. Cantlay has solid course history here and it’s a very sticky track, but he’s never finished in the top 10 at the Traveler’s. His highest finish is T-11. He will play well, but at a five figure price tag and the fifth highest price golfer, if you’re plugging him in, you’re going to want win equity, especially at 20%+ in GPP’s.
The track fit for Austin Eckroat’s game is incredible. He hasn’t missed a cut in close to 3 months (!), has ++ accuracy, outstanding in GIR% from 150-175, and is positive in every aspect of his game the last 16 rounds. He only got a $300 salary increase from a top 10 at the US Open and he’s in the first group out on Thursday, allowing him to take advantage of soft conditions with no wind. The only two concerns I have is coming from LA to Connecticut and a steep time change coming off a major and just how many times he’ll be clicked by his deep round Sunday and top 10 finish.
This group is certainly more volatile than the group above, but is offering us a lot of value.
Ludvig Aberg has a ton of talent and already has name recognition, but his driver is a complete weapon and he has plus accuracy and off the tee numbers. He may get more clicks, but at RBC Canadian, he finished 25th and hasn’t missed the cut yet in his professional career to date.
Alex Smalley again carries interest to me. He’s in the top third of the Tour in good drive percentage, terrific ball striking numbers and well above average tee to green stats. Weakest part of his game has been his putting, but TPC River Highlands greens don’t present the same type of challenge some of the tougher courses do. For those factoring in potential fatigue, Smalley didn’t participate at the US Open, so he should be well rested. Finished 25th at RBC Canada, another more technical track like TPC-RH.
Aaron Rai! Two glove wonder - we’ve highlighted him here plenty of times, but this is a track that fits his tremendously accurate game very well. He placed top 40 here last year in his only appearance at the tournament.
I have no clue how much he’ll be clicked, but TPC-RH screams Tom Kim. He seems to be finding his game again — he’s always been an accurate driver of the ball, but in my trend table, he’s showing top end gains in ball striking and approach and modest gains in his T2G game. Guessing his click rate will come in higher as he had a very strong showing at the US Open coming off of two MC’s and some mediocre showings.
Surprised at how low Justin Suh & Dylan Wu came in on the model. The only thing that I can think that holds them further back or would cause them to MC is unsustainable putting & subpar scrambling games. An interesting note I found in research, TPC-RH is among the toughest courses on Tour around the green. It sits behind only Augusta in yearly Tour stops (yes, I know, Augusta is not technically a Tour stop).
More to come.