Player Pool: John Deere Classic
The sixth major!
Quick Rocket recap: 24/37 - 65% made cut. Chalky misses in Justin Thomas, Tom Kim, Austin Eckroat & Hideki Matsuyama and to some extent Tony Finau really hurt the pool. I’m not sure if the entire field misread the course or it was just a variance type thing due to timing and players being exhausted. Either way, marginally above average. Some solace in the fact we had all 3 playoff performers and some other high finishers.
This week, we take on the sixth major and hyper elevated event (it’s not, please don’t listen to me) in the John Deere Classic. To say that the field is… watered down… is putting it nicely. TPC Deere Run is a course made on land donated by descendants of the namesake specifically for this tournament. You cannot overpower it, a modest 7,200 in length, but you can absolutely score on it. The 4” rough will be more penal than we saw last week in Detroit, so while many game types can be accommodated, we’re looking for fairway finders with good wedge games and those who are hot with their putter.
This is very much a Russ Henley course and he doesn’t have to deal with a loaded field. In early projections, I’ve seen Henley at 10% less than Denny McCarthy (who checks in at number 3 and is an unreal play) and if it’s a heads up battle, give me the $200 savings and less clicks. But I also don’t mean that to take away from Denny.
Really, really interested to see where Schenk projects click wise. His last 5 starts are a little wild - a 2nd at Charles Schwab, a 7th at the Memorial, MC’s at the US Open and the Travelers and a 7th last week at Rocket Mortgage. As of late, he’s been red hot with his putter and ball striking and is a plus accuracy player. He’ll have a good shot to make noise.
Doug Ghim placed highly last week in the model and came out firing on Thursday. He couldn’t quite recapture the -6 magic of Thursday, but did shoot under par every round at DGC and logged a 33rd finish, his lowest finish position of his last five. At just $8,000 this week, his excellent driver and strong short iron game will give him a lot of opportunity. While he isn’t setting the world on fire with the flat stick, the good news is that he is showing signs of positive trends with the putter and he’s 3rd overall in the full field trend table. TPC-DR is a place that it is easier to gain strokes with putting and the greens aren’t going to be nearly the challenge last week was.
Smalley, Chez & yes, Kevin Streelman, carry a lot of interest to me and I’ll look to expand on them in Toph’s Thoughts.
Guessing Eric Cole is going to get a lot clicks. I’ll try to zero in on that, but he’s seemingly a very solid play. He is white hot with his putter over the past 16 rounds, so that’s the main reason I’m approaching cautiously. His overall game is actually trending negatively from his 32 rounds to 16 rounds, save for his putter, in which he’s picked up close to a full stroke gained.
Lucas Glover has great course history here, but with that, he’s seemingly chalk in the low $7K range (rightfully so). Could Kevin Streelman be a direct pivot?
The second wave of the model - the more volatile, GPP options. Patrick Rodgers remains underwhelming every time we play him, but he should be a safe option for making the cut. He’s made the cut here his last 4 outings and does have a second place finish here. A plus putter.
Dylan Wu plays a volatile, explosive game. A great GPP name. He has plus accuracy, an outstanding good drive percentage and his approach game with wedges is very above average. Could be chalky due to a strong Rocket performance, but I personally watched him melt down on Sunday which caused him to tumble to a T-24 performance.
Peter Kuest figures to be pretty chalky after loudly arriving on the scene last week in Detroit after Monday qualifying and placing a T-4. A made cut would likely secure special temporary membership, so the motivation factor is there.
I like Seamus Power, but I’m very hesitant at price. He’s made one cut in the past month. I don’t think he’ll struggle to make the cut here, but I’m not sure how much interest I have paying up that much.
We have a C. Young sighting! As expected, Carson makes the player pool and you may have noted Cameron did not make the cut. I am not interested in a 20% Cam Young. Carson, however, does have an accurate driver, a good wedge game and a plus putter. He continues to get clicked a ton, and I’d expect at this price point in this tournament, that will continue.
Couple of names that got chopped right at the end, but I’ll list here for GPP consideration only: Scott Piercy $7,000 (does have a back injury) Zecheng (Marty) Dou $6,900, Kevin Tway $7,000, Taylor Moore $9,400, Keith Mitchell $9,600, Kevin Roy $6,300.
More to come.