Player Pool: FedEx St. Jude
The playoffs are here
TPC Southwind in the outskirts of Memphis plays host to our first stop in the PGA Tour playoffs. This year's iteration becomes a 70 player limited field event, as opposed to the 125 number it’s been at in years past. Also different — there is no cut. So, you’re guaranteed to finally get 6/6 through! Hooray!
The course itself has plenty of water in play, coming in on 11 holes. It has the most “water balls” of any course on Tour. It’s a par 70 with only two par 5’s and plays longer than some of the other courses (such as Harbour Town) with similar feel to them. Accuracy was something highlight by Rory McIlroy and a solid wedge to low iron game. Ball striking is rewarded. In this weeks player pool, I have included the ball striking rank direct from the PGA Tour stats page. This is a players full PGA rank in ball striking. It is not factored into Total Score, but can be seen as a tie-breaker as we have used distance rankings in the past.
I am not at all shocked, and you shouldn’t be either, that we find Rory, Scottie and Jon at the top. They are clearly the three best current players on the planet, they’re priced as such and you can’t go wrong playing any of them.
Collin Morikawa was someone I had my eye on from the trend table and his current form numbers back it up. Of the players that made the cut in the player pool, he is second only to Si Woo Kim in accuracy and is one of the premier ball strikers on Tour. He has an outstanding price point and good course history - what will the field do with him becomes the question.
Sepp Straka and Tom Kim both rate incredibly high this week and that’s partially due to a baked in course history number. They’ve both only played last year and had a wealth of success when they did. So, you can use some caution with both of these players. Definitely with Tom Kim who is still recovering from an ankle injury that forced him to miss defending his maiden PGA title last week at the Wyndham. I’ve seen one report that he may be close to 20%. If that’s the case, it’s the easiest fade in the world for me.
Cam Young sits very high on my trend table and his ball striking numbers are massively improving. His accuracy concerns me and I’ve been watching his game pretty intently since the John Deere and he seems to be veering left frequently. However, his price point is absolutely fantastic. Will be interesting to see what the field does with him.
Grillo is a player I’m super interested in. Recent form, he’s everything you could ask for from an accuracy, putter and ball striking perspective. His course history is short, but positive, posting a T31 last year.
JT Poston has made massive gains in approach and ball striking according to my trend table and he sits 8th out of the 70 golfers. It’s not the bible, but it’s just going to show his game is coming on. Worthwhile to remember that’s he’s been playing a lot of the recent events that the bigger names have taken off.
Another week, another “this should be a great Aaron Rai course!” and he disappointed again last week in Greensboro. I think it’s fair to ask if he’s burnt out right now. While his putter has come to life, his approach and tee to green numbers have started to slide, but not to the point where it’s causing too much concern. His price is extremely low and if the field is going to avoid him because of the MC last week and two MC’s out of his past 3 events, might be time to go overweight on the two glove wonder. Positive course history here, fwiw.
Keith Mitchell pops up again, much lower in total score with a stronger field, but still ranks 6th in my full field trend table. I’m less convinced on Keith this week, but his approach game has definitely been surging and he is a good ball striker. He has a T37, 39 and a T31 (last year) here at TPC Southwind when he’s played. So, not a top heavy performance, but has done well in bigger fields.
Si Woo, as chalky as can be last week save Denny McCarthy, limped to a T33 finish at Wyndham and his putting trend is… not great. He’s getting massacred with the flat stick. However, his accuracy should help here at TPC Southwind. Has made the cut the last two years he has played, but his finishes have been subpar. I think this is a case of “what is the field going to do with him?”
I’ll expand on him later, but man oh man, do I really hope Norrman is chalk du jour, especially given his price. Elite ball striker, with a strong putting trend and a steady game everywhere else.
Toph’s Thoughts coming later today.