PGA Championship: Player Pool

Second major, here we go!

The theme of Valhalla this year seems to be a tale of two vastly different nines. We are trying to piece together as much information as we can on a track that has hosted two PGA Championships before and other high end tournaments, but so much has changed course wise, it’s going to be tricky to rely on decades old information.

For one, the course is much, much longer than we’ve seen it play before. The grass is entirely different and it’s also being played a full three months earlier than it’s been played on this course before.

From parsing different sources, listening to players and getting a relative understanding of what we’re looking at, it is a course designed to favor bombers. The more distance you have, the better and if you’re accurate, all the better. The rough has been grown to 4”+ and with the new grass layout for fairways, we’ve been told to expect more roll. I think what this is going to do, and this is just a feel thing, is keep some of the “shorter” hitters alive if they can get decent enough roll to leave themselves a mid to long iron into the green complexes, but the more distance you carry, the bigger advantage you’re going to have.

We also know that the greens are going to be absolutely lightning fast, so not being completely useless with the flat stick will help some.

Trees line the back nine, and being able to control the ball enough so you’re not finding the lush, penal rough will also be helpful, so I am favoring long hitters that are accurate enough or extremely accurate players with top tier ball striking if they don’t have the mega distance.

Please keep in mind that any LIV golfer represented is going to have some wonky stats, so it’s a little more guess work with them, but it’s some of the usual suspects.

Also, stat ranks are relative to the field itself.

Scottie Scheffler. Yep. What else do you want me to say?

I think Bryson has a lot of built in advantages with his supreme length off the tee and outstanding ball striking numbers. If he can avoid the big number from a wayward tee shot and keep his putter in roughly the same form it was in in Augusta, he’ll be fine. He will also be extremely popular, likely the most clicked name in the $9K range, so bear that in mind.

Ludvig’s knee injury doesn’t seem to be any hindrance from early reports, but I’m always cautious of injuries that force a golfer to miss a signature event, although with his career trajectory and earnings already, I’m sure he wanted to make sure he was available for a major versus a glorified no-cut scrimmage with the boys club. Much like Scheffler, I have quickly run out of superlatives to describe Aberg and if that knee is indeed ok, he is a golfer built in a lab for this type of course and challenge. He may go under clicked given who is surrounding him and questions about the knee, but he’s a risk well worth taking.

Rory has won here and Xander is fine enough. I don’t think we need to write a book on either.

Hideki when he says his body is on the verge of breaking doesn’t withdraw and goes on to win or place very highly and then we don’t hear a peep and he WD’s after lock. What a swell guy. For what it’s worth, I don’t think we’re in danger of a WD from the Japanese superstar. Outstanding peripherals, but is he going to be able to compete off the tee?

I really wish Straka hit the ball further, however, he fared well at Augusta and top 10’d at both RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo, two vastly different courses. His elite accuracy and otherworldly ranks in all of the other key categories and his trending game make him an outstanding bet at price, although he should reach low double digit clicks. Just use caution in how you play him (e.g. not with a 30% Scheffler, for example).

Ben An is going to be pretty chalky given price and how far he hits the ball, but from a pure value perspective, I don’t disagree. A 67th at RBC Heritage, a course that doesn’t fit him at all, is the sore thumb of the past four tournaments in which he logged a 16th at the Masters, a 4th at the CJ Cup and a 3rd last week at Wells Fargo where it’s not an apples to apples comparison by any stretch, but there are a few like similarities between Quail Hollow and Valhalla.

I like Joaquin Niemann a lot this week, especially if you read the betting article I posted yesterday. In my heart of hearts, I still believe this is Scheffler’s tournament to lose until proven otherwise, but Niemann has a terrific profile and has been absolutely prolific this year on the LIV circuit, carding multiple wins and leading their tour in driving distance. A 22nd place finish at Augusta this year shows that he can compete at a high level, even if we’d like to have seen a higher finish.

McCarthy is going to be extremely popular given his price, but I don’t think he has the juice necessary to compete off the tee. I’m fine with a full fade of a low double digit to early teens clicked golfer at $6,300. His ball striking numbers are also subpar comparative to the field.

Cam Young can be an absolute wildcard, but there’s no doubting how good he his with the big stick in hand and that should give him enough advantages to be in the mix. Solid peripheral numbers, hasn’t missed a cut this season and has five top 10’s on the books including a 9th place finish at Augusta this year. Low double digits, I think he is a perfectly fine click.

I consider Aaron Rai a play if you have multiple lineups going. The peripherals are fine, and he is one of the most accurate players on Tour, but completely lacks distance and is a very inconsistent player. However, I think price point and nobody playing him at all, again, he’s fine for sprinkling in multiple entries.

Definitely the more shaky of the group, still there is value to be had.

As you can see, the majority of these golfers are all in the wrong areas trend wise (looking at you Theegala, Clark, Hoge & Schenk) but we will still be able to pull a few pieces.

Cantlay is perfect on the season cut wise, but a salary in the five figures and only two top 10’s to his name this year, I think it’s kind of a meh play.

Theegala & Clark both have all the talent in the world, but can they pull out of their trends?

Hoge suffers from lack of distance, But I like the peripherals on everything else, plus he also has two top 10’s and has only missed one cut out of 14 events and that was back in January. Given his price point and low single digit clicks, I think he’s an outstanding play from a game theory perspective and he only has two finishes outside of the top 40. Let’s say he comes in at 3-5%, makes the cut and gives you a top 40 performance at $6,400, you take that and run.

I like Cam Davis quite a bit this week. Davis’ averages nearly 300 yards off the tee and ranks in the top 15% on the PGA Tour in total driving (accuracy + distance). The strength and confidence of the pick is in such long odds for a player who logged a 12th-place finish in the Masters, so he has the major pedigree entering a course that should fit his game well.

Jon Rahm is still Jon Rahm - don’t overthink it.

Hovland is completely broken right now. I wouldn’t waste a click and I would full fade and let it bite me until we see something from his game that deserves merit.

Every time I say play Detry, he is terrible and every time I say he is terrible and don’t play him, he goes on a heater. I think he’s fine for multiple entries 20 and more.

Adam Scott is fine. Crafty veteran, not going to be clicked much (5% or lower) and a low price point. Still has plenty of distance off the tee and ranks in the top quarter of the field in all of the peripherals. Has had a solid season, although not overwhelming.

I don’t think you need to reach for either McNealy or Bezuidenhout. Given trend rankings on both and the continued slide down the pools, I think both are likely to find themselves on the outside looking in again shortly.

Ben Griffin ranks in the top half of the field in every major statistical category (except SG: off-the-tee, which is affected by his middle-of-the-pack distance) which is tracked within his recent performances. He’s in the top quarter of the full field trend table, which means his game is sharp - as evidenced by making seven cuts in his last nine events. He has not finished outside the top 40 in his past four events spanning back nearly two months and his upper echelon putting and approach game should keep him within striking distance of the top 40. He’s sub $6K and absolutely nobody is playing him. He won’t hurt you if he MC’s given the strength of the lineup you can build around his salary, but he will absolutely pay you off if he sees the weekend and does anything on the leaderboard.

The curious case of Sungjae Im. The Korean Prince and swag gangster has had a lackluster season for the most part, but has really started to turn it on. He won in Korea roughly three weeks ago, finished 12th at the RBC Heritage and placed 4th last week at Wells Fargo. His driver has been a laser again and his elite positioning and solid distance (300 yard average roughly) will match this course nicely and a sub $8K price tag with low to mid single digit clicks make him a very terrific leverage play.

Koepka is better than his numbers suggest, he’s the reigning PGA champion and he won last week. Again, don’t overthink it.

Guys like Burns, Fitzpatrick and to a degree, Hodges, Eckroat etc are just ok. Nothing earth shattering, but if they find their way into your optimizers or lineup settings, it’s not terrible, but I’m also not going out of my way to get them in.

Good luck, everyone. It’s a great week to have a great week. Let’s get 6/6 through and produce a millionaire.