Model Talk: The Masters
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Ball Strikers: Assemble!
Patrick Cantlay ($9,500): Cantlay could be somewhat forgotten among the elite DFS options this week. Only Scottie Scheffler leads Cantlay in the ball striking category and strokes gained tee to green over the past month. Since missing the cut at the WM Open in early February, Cantlay has been on a tear, finishing third, fourth, and 19th over his past three starts. Cantlay was 11th in strokes gained on approach among the stacked field at the Players Championship in March. As DFS players flock to more exciting, hyped high-priced Masters options, Cantlay could prove a contrarian play in large-field tournaments.
Kurt Kitayama ($7,100): Kitayama undoubtedly has the dog in him. Maybe several dogs. We’re looking into it. Kitayama comes into the Masters 16th in strokes gained tee to green among the 35 golfers in this week’s model. He’s 14th in ball striking. Beating the likes of Tony Finau and Cam Young in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Championship last month, Kitayama profiles as a sneaky, low-rostered option who has proven he can compete at a high level.
Gary Woodland ($6,700): The Woodland Creature is sixth in ball striking among the 35 golfers identified by the model as this week’s best plays (we play the best plays here, no questions asked). Woodland has been in great form for the better part of two months, and it’s translated to his tee to green performance. Only six guys in the Masters field have been better tee to green over the past month. Jon Rahm is only slightly ahead of Woodland in strokes gained tee to green. Let’s try to ignore that Woodland is dead last in putting among the 35 players in this week’s model. On the year, Woodland is 199th out of 209 qualifying PGA Tour players in strokes gained on the greens. Make one put, Gary. Please.
Around The Green Dynamos
Strokes gained around the green is more important at Augusta than almost any other course the pros play all year. Getting up and down from the tricky greenside areas is critical for anyone not hitting the cover off the golf ball. Being able to compensate for less-than-perfect tee to green play will be vitally important this week. Below are players who have led the tour in around the green play in 2023.
Justin Thomas ($9,300): Not only was Thomas first in strokes gained around the green at the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua -- a good comp course to Augusta -- but he leads all PGA players in around the green stats this year. And no one is close. In Thomas’ most recent appearance -- a 10th place finish as Valspar -- he was fifth in strokes gained around the green. Thomas’ ball striking struggles don’t concern me too much. That form should translate well at the Masters.
Jason Day ($8,700): Day is first among non-LIV guys this week around the green. He’s been fantastic around the green for the past couple months. He’s top-15 around the green on the year and led everyone in strokes gained around the green last month at the Player Championship. It doesn’t hurt that Day ranks 12th in the Masters field in ball striking over the past 16 rounds. Stretch to to 32 rounds and Day is among elite territory, including Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.
Danny Willett ($6,600): This week’s Model Golden Boy is fourth among the model’s targets in around the green play, and 24th around the greens on the season. At the Players Championship, he was 20th out of 75 players in strokes gained around the greens. Willett, a relatively short hitter who has made the cut in six straight appearances, isn’t stellar tee to green and will need to be razor sharp around the greens at Augusta.
Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700): That Fleetwood didn’t make this week’s model won’t stop me from writing about him, even if it lands me in prison. In tying for third two weeks ago at the Valspar, Fleetwood was second in the field in around the green play. Only Justin Thomas is ahead of Fleetwood on the season in strokes gained around the green. And Fleetwood is 12th on Tour in strokes gained tee to green since early February (on a somewhat limited sample size of 22 rounds).