Model Musing's: US Open

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(Editor’s note: Link to the US Open Player Pool is at the bottom)

Los Angeles Country Club is going to be hellish in every way this week. This should probably push us toward guys who have scored well of late primarily by hitting a lot of fairways, displaying good-enough ball striking, and making medium-range putts -- three factors that will be critical for this week’s U.S. Open field. 

Let’s start with the best drivers of the golf ball over the past 16 rounds. 

Austin Eckroat ($7,000): A Topher model favorite this week, Eckroat ranks sixth in driving accuracy among players in this week’s U.S. Open field. He’s tenth in good drive percentage. Zoom out a little bit to the past 30 rounds and Eckroat is ninth in good drive percentage and eighth in accuracy. That he’s by no means long off the tee doesn’t bother me much. That lack of length means Eckroat -- seventh in ball striking trend headed into this week -- can’t win the Open, but he could certainly make the cut and prove a valuable low-cost option if he keeps up the excellent off-the-tee play at LACC. 

Dylan Wu ($6,400): Only Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay are ahead of Wu in good drive percentage over the past 16 rounds among U.S. Open players. He ranks 27th in good drive rate over the past 30 rounds. Wu’s game is in solid shape headed into the Open; he ranks 36th in strokes gained tee to green over the past 16 rounds. The worry with Wu, as always, is his volatile short game, which has been worse than usual over the past month. Still, for the price, he’s worth slotting into your large-field GPP lineups. 

Tyrell Hatton ($8,900): Though he won’t be an unpopular play in DFS this week, Hatton likely won’t be a chalk option with Jordan Spieth and Matt Fitzpatrick priced alongside him on DraftKings. Hatton has been red hot of late: Over the past 16 rounds, he’s second in strokes gained, second in strokes gained putting, and 15th in strokes gained off the tee. Hatton, who was fifth in strokes gained tee to green last week at the Canadian Open, ranks eighth in good drive percentage among this week’s field. He could be overlooked in DFS. 

Sam Bennett ($6,500): Having just made the cut in this week’s Topher model, Bennett looks like a guy who can keep the ball on the short stuff at LACC. Over the past 30 rounds, no one has a better good drive rate than Bennett, who last week at the Canadian Open was 15th in strokes gained off the tee on his way to a top-20 finish. Bennett’s ball striking trending in the wrong direction of late doesn’t inspire the most confidence. But at $6,500, you might find a guy who can play into the weekend and free up salary to play more than one elite option. 

Now we’re on to putting, which will be crucial in saving par (and sometimes bogey) on a firm and fast course this week. Yes, putting is volatile and noisy. Ignoring it at a birdie fest of a tournament might be wise. At LACC, I want guys who have been stellar with the flat stick. 

Tyrell Hatton ($8,900): Our guy pops up again with his aforementioned lights-out putting. Over the past 16 rounds, Hatton is 12th in putting from 5-10 feet among players in the U.S. Open field. He was first in putting by a considerable margin in last week’s Canadian Open on his way to a third place finish. Hardly anyone in this week’s field is trending better on the greens than Hatton. 

Taylor Moore ($7,400): Returning from an undisclosed injury, Moore has been among the PGA Tour’s best putters over the past couple months. In that critical 5-10 foot range, Moore ranks first if you exclude LIV players, whose stats are a bit stale and unreliable. Moore will need to light it up on the greens if his tee-to-green game continues to lag. 

Taylor Montgomery ($7,400): At best, Montgomery is a highly volatile GPP option. He’s a guy who could implode at LACC. Nevertheless, we want to point out that over the past 30 rounds, Montgomery is top-10 in lag putting and from 10-15 feet. Only Maverick McNealy has averaged more strokes gained putting per round than Montgomery on the Tour this season. 

Adam Scott ($7,500): The wily veteran has been sweeping that broomstick putter quite well recently. The Topher model has Scott as the third best putter in this week’s field and over the past 16 rounds, and no golfer has been better in the 10-15 foot range over that stretch (Scott has struggled in the 5-10 foot range, however). Scott was fifth in strokes gained on the green at the Memorial, his most recent appearance. He just so happens to enter the U.S. Open with the third best ball striking trend too.