Model Musings: The Open
Finding value in an extremely top heavy field
(Editor’s note: We will have the player pool for The Open, Toph’s Thoughts for The Open and a player pool for the Barracuda. Thanks to my trip to Utah last week, being jammed in cross country flight twice and small conference rooms for four days, I got a nasty head cold that has laid me out. It’s coming though, folks.)
I don’t think you can go too terribly wrong with the elite DFS options this week. And by elite, I mean -- in no particular order -- Rahm, Scheffler, McIlroy, Koepka, and maybe guys like Hovland, Fowler, and Cantlay. Throw Cam Smith in there if you still think he has any dawg left in him after getting paid by the Saudis to play hit-and-giggle with his unserious buddies on the LIV Tour.
They all crush it from tee to green, they all hit it 900 yards off the tee. They should all be fine for DFS purposes.
That’s why I’m intrigued by some cost-savings option in the British Open field, even the guys priced below the $6,000 mark. It all sounds so gross, but there are paths to top-heavy lineups if you take advantage of some low-priced guys who can certainly make the cut this week. You can jam as many as three big names into your lineup if you go low -- real low -- with your other three lineup spots. This kind of roster building should be reserved for massive-field GPPs, naturally.
Alexander Bjork ($6,700): The (relatively) unknown Bjork has been white hot over the past couple months on the DP World Tour. He had five straight top-10 finishes on the DP Tour before last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, where he finished 35th. Bjork was impressive, as usual, with his irons, finishing second in strokes gained on approach at the Genesis. That makes sense for a dude who leads the DP Tour in strokes gained on approach in 2023. He’s not awful around the greens either, ranking 16th in strokes gained ARG. Only two DP players have been better with scrambling in 2023. It’s his driving inaccuracy that could wreak havoc at this week’s Open. Hence, he’s in the $6,000 range.
Daniel Hillier ($6,100): Hillier last week at the Genesis Open made the cut and finished inside the top-50 against a killer field. He was third in strokes gained on approach on the week and tenth off the tee. Hillier was miserable around the greens, especially on the weekend. Nevertheless, he’s terribly cheap and in pretty solid form headed into the Open. He hasn’t missed a cut on the DP World Tour since late May, and he’s 24th on that tour in strokes gained on approach this year, just behind Adrian Meronk, every American’s favorite little-known European golfer. What’s more: Hillier ranks third in around the green trend among British Open players.
Ewen Ferguson ($6,200): You could (maybe) do worse than Ferguson if you’re dead set on rostering a trio of top players this week. Ferguson was tenth in strokes gained on approach at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open on his way to a 12th place finish in a stacked field. Ferguson enters the Open 14th in around the green trend, meaning he’s been excellent with his scrambling of late. He’s 18th in strokes gained on approach on the DP World Tour this season, having finished fourth at the Bretfred British Masters two weeks ago. His familiarity with European-style golf should be a major asset this week.
Padraig Harrington ($6,600): When you can tout a 51-year-old player, you do it. Old Harrington has been good of late, however. He made the cut at the Genesis and finished tied for 42nd. Harrington was terrible on approach at the Genesis but was his usual excellent self around the greens. Harrington ranks third among this week’s field in strokes gained around the green over his past 12 rounds. Just last month, the geezer had a strong showing at the U.S. Open: Two of his four rounds were under par and he finished 27th. It comes as little surprise that Harrington was 12th in around the green play at the U.S. Open. He’ll lean heavily on his chipping and putting this week, and should make a serious run to make the weekend. That’s all we can ask.
Marcel Siem ($5,800): We’re going deep, folks. Mr. Siem hasn’t missed a cut on the DP Tour since April and managed a top-40 finish at last week’s Genesis Open. No one in the Open field has been better of late off the tee; at worst, Siem should be able to keep it in play and give himself a good chance to avoid big numbers this week. Siem is a grinder. That’s not a bad thing at the British, especially if the wind kicks up and creates nightmare conditions for the field.