Model Musing's: PGA Championship

The Team (C) (TM) loves bombers and scramblers

(Editor’s note: Link to player pool at the bottom)

I was temporarily consumed by the idea that accurate drivers would have a sneaky edge this week at Oak Hill. Guys who could keep it on the short stuff -- even if they weren’t winning long-drive contests along the way -- would be at a distinct advantage over guys bombing it into the thick rough. 

But here’s the thing: Oak Hill’s rough is as penal one yard off the fairway as it is 30 yards off the fairway. Everyone is going to play from the rough quite often this week, even the most accurate drivers. And it’s those accurate drivers who lack the power to rip the ball out of the tall stuff. Poor Denny McCarthy (155th in swing speed) will have to lay up from 100 yards at Oak Hill. David Lingmerth -- with the Tour’s fourth lowest average swing speed -- might not be able to get his ball out of the rough. 

Below are players outside the elite options who fit the profile of a big, tough dude who can slash his way around Oak Hill this week. I’ve focused on four players who likely won’t draw much rostership in large field tournaments. 

Sam Burns ($8,200): I would expect Tom Kim, Max Homa, and Matt Fitzpatrick to soak up most of the 8K rostership this week, leaving Burns as a potential pivot. That will work just fine. Ole’ Burnsy is eighth in driving distance in this week’s field; he’s 25th in total driving over the past 36 rounds. It doesn’t hurt that Burns is top-30 in average swing speed this year. He’s also a respectable 21st in ball striking over the past 16 rounds among this week’s players. Tenth in putting over the past 16 rounds, Burns makes for a logical GPP option this week. 

Joaquin Niemann ($7,900): Data for the LIV Tour bros are going to be a little on the wonky side. There’s no way around that. Nevertheless, Niemann comes in 21st in this week’s model and would seem to generate the kind of swing speed necessary to move it around Oak Hill. Last year on the PGA Tour, before bailing for LIV and its unserious tournaments, Niemann ranked 27th in average swing speed. The year before that, he was 22nd in swing speed. The skinny dude with the rippling eight pack can rip it. Coming off back-to-back top-8 finishes in LIV Tour events, Niemann profiles as a sneaky option will certainly won’t have much rostership. 

Sam Stevens (? - we are waiting on DK to add him to player pool): Replacing LIV Tour bro Paul Casey, Stevens doesn’t have a DraftKings salary as of this writing. He should be a solid, low-priced option though. Stevens is 12th in driving distance over the past 36 rounds and 25th in strokes gained off the tee over that stretch. He ranks 34th in average swing speed, just below Xander and Rahm. What’s more, he ranks 19th in greens in regulation from the rough over the past 36 rounds. Stevens has played the weekend in four of his past six events, finishing 34th in his most recent outing at the Byron Nelson, where he ranked sixth in strokes gained tee to green. (Editor’s note: I ran Steven’s numbers comparative to where he’d land in the model and he slots in at 20th, one spot above Hovland.)

Taylor Pendrith ($6,800): I’m going a little bit outside this week’s model here. A bomber through and through, Pendrith sports the 19th highest average driving distance and the 12th highest carry distance off the tee among players in the PGA Championship field. His average swing speed (40th on Tour) leaves a little to be desired, but his history of being long and hyper aggressive off the tee should suit him well at Oak Hill. Do I enjoy touting a guy who has missed three of his past four cuts? I do not.