Model Musing's: Byron Nelson
Some #thoughts
Editors Note: Player Pool Link at bottom of article
Approach shot acumen matters more at Craig Ranch than (almost) any other PGA Tour venue, and putting isn’t far behind. Driving distance and accuracy aren’t compelling stats to chase here, leaving us with players who have been hot with the irons and the old flat stick. Below are four guys who fit that criteria and likely won’t draw eye-watering rostership in large-field DraftKings tournaments this week.
We’re going to have to get weird with tournament lineups if we’re committed to devouring the Scheffler chalk. Unless Scottie is abducted by aliens on the ninth green during the first round, he’s going to make the cut and compete for the top spot. And this week’s model doesn’t like the chances of a Scheffler abduction.
Jason Day ($9,400): Day’s rostership this week might be suppressed after his devastating missed cut last week at the Wells Fargo. There’s every reason to believe Day can bounce back at Craig Ranch though. The model has Day eighth in putting and 18th in approach. He’s 18th on the season in strokes gained on approach, and ranks eighth best in approach proximity over the past 16 rounds. Only Taylor Montgomery has gained more strokes on the green than Day over the past 30 rounds. Some wayward shots cost Day dearly last week. Don’t write him off at a much different and more scoring-friendly venue this week.
Jimmy Walker ($7,100): In a watered-down field, I suppose Walker could get decent rostership. Nevertheless, we persist. Walker is first in putting in this week’s model and 22nd in approach. Zoom out a bit and you’ll see Walker is 13th on Tour in strokes gained on the green over the past 24 rounds. He’s also second in three-putt avoidance over that stretch. Tearing up par fives over the past two months (a critical key to success at Craig Ranch), Walker has as solid a statistical profile as anyone in his price range. Walker has made the cut in five of his past six events, with four straight top-25 showings.
Tom Hoge ($8,500): Hoge’s elevated price point after two missed cuts in April means he’ll enter the Byron Nelson with miniscule rostership. Maybe that’s for a reason and I should recognize his recent struggles. I won’t though; instead I’ll point to Hoge ranking 15th in putting in this week’s model and seventh in approach. Incredibly, Hoge is ninth among all Tour players in strokes gained on approach over the past 24 rounds. Hoge, as you might know, has been an abject disaster off the tee this season. He’s 96th in strokes gained off the tee over the past 30 rounds, though he’s 25th in accuracy over that time. Luckily for Hoge and those who play him in DFS this week, driving doesn’t matter all that much at Craig Ranch.
Nate Lashley ($7,200): After finishing t-27th last week at the Wells Fargo, Lashley -- who finished 17th at last year’s Byron Nelson -- is third in approach in this week’s model and a fine-if-not-spectacular 22nd in putting. Lashley has been up and down on the greens this season but is tied with Scheffler for the Tour lead in three-putt avoidance -- an important metric on the enormous greens at Craig Ranch. Lashley is 21st in strokes gained on approach over the past 12 rounds. My only hesitation on Lashley: He struggled mightily on the weekend at the Wells Fargo, shooting 71-75 after two rounds in the 60s.
