Houston Open: Player Pool
You'll be stunned at who is number one! (You won't.)
We head to Texas for a mini swing before The Masters and we have a couple strong headliners and a whole bunch of “meh” to follow, which are honestly some of my favorite tournaments.
Scheffler is, of course, our number one golfer by a mile and the field recognizes that as well. So much so, that I’ve seen that he could take up a spot in close to half of all lineups entered. Of course he’s a great player. If he wants to win this tournament, he probably can. And if he does, and we don’t play him (because he’s a bad play simply based on how many people are going to click him) we have to accept a min cash or a loss.
It happens. It’s DFS/gambling. That’s what the risks are.
But again - DFS specifically - is a peer to peer contest. You want to take swings where your opponents (the other DFS players) aren’t.
I think he’s a must click in cash type games (50/50’s, double ups, etc) but a must avoid in single entry and larger scale tournaments. It’s up to you how you choose to handle it, because you’re going to have to get really different in your five other slots if you’re looking to play Scottie.
Anyway, on to the course. It’s a long course that doesn’t hide much and the change in schedule that moved this event to March as opposed to it’s normal fall slot has shattered the grass expectations on the course, including the rough. Where accuracy used to come into play here, now with 1.25” non-penal rough - it doesn’t really matter.
I present to you a direct quote this week from Wyndham Clark:
“It’s not a good week to throw your back out because this is going to be a grip & rip it, bomb it down as far as you can because there isn’t that challenging rough that you had to hit fairways in the previous years. So now it’s just really who can hit it the farthest and then take advantage of that & then obviously make the most putts.
This course still has a bunch of defense around the greens. The greens are challenging around, you know, if you miss the green up-and-downs are tough. You know, if you’re hitting it good & far, it’s a huge advantage.”
Bomber’s paradise with a solid short game.
Anyway, on to the player pool:
I spent enough time on Scottie. If you want to play him at 45%, knock yourself out.
I wonder how serious the back injury for Wyndham is. He played 9 holes & will continue rehab, he says, but he’s been lights out.
Sahith is pretty chalky, too, coming in around 20% and might creep up a bit higher, but I think he’s going to be really good here. I think a ton of optimizer bros are going to smash Scottie & Sahith together, so if you want to play one or the other, make sure you’re not pairing them together.
Jason Day & Taylor Moore both look very solid, with Moore projecting at half the clicks Day is.
I wish Alex Noren hit the ball farther, but the rest of his peripherals are outstanding. I think he’s a heck of a play.
Kitayama’s trend is garbage, but he seems solid enough here with the rest. He should sneak into low double digit lineups, which is perfectly fine depending on what you do up top.
Andrew Novak seems like a really solid play here as well.
Finau, Rai & Mitchell are the three I’m most cautious on in this group, but I still think they’re absolutely playable. But, again, those are the three that I’m kind of sideways looking at.
It’s Knapp Time! I think his game fits really well with what’s happening at the course this week. I think he, Kitayama & Mackenzie Hughes will all keep each other's clicks in check being right there in the same range.
I’m not very interested in Bud Cauley, full stop. I thought I’d be interested in Nate Lashley, but that wore off pretty quickly.
Parker Coody projects as a solid play and he is a native Texan.
Silverman is kind of the same boat for me as Noren where I wish he hit the ball longer, but everything else looks outstanding.
I’m fully aboard the Jorge Campillo train as you may have read in the trend table. The trend is there, the peripherals are there, the clicks are there. It’s all you can ask for in a 1% player. I’m willing to be burned by this and irrationally hold a grudge against him by Friday afternoon.
Greyserman also looks like a solid play and really good value on price & clicks.
Olesen, Malnati (even though he won last week), and Davis Thompson are all kind of meh to me out of this group, probably Pat Rodgers too. I don’t really see it or see the potential upside.
The rest, I’m fine with as this section is pretty strictly tournament plays.
Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through, and Scottie… take it easy, man. You’ve got Augusta in two weeks. (Scottie Scheffler reads this Substack.) (Scottie Scheffler does not read this Substack.)