Final Thoughts 3/29 Valero
Title says it all
Thinking one of the separation pieces in tournament lineups is the decision with your 1A golfer. I think that will come down to a choice on Hatton versus Fowler. Hatton complained of hand pain in his final loss at Dell Match Play. It doesn’t hurt he is already in the field for Augusta and Rickie is fighting for a spot. Over their last 16 rounds, Rickie only edges Tyrrell in SG: Putting. If factoring in who the field will be heaviest on, you take the discount in both salary and roster and go with Fowler.
I’m never concerned about carrying a golfer, or even two for that matter, that are carrying a heavy roster number. You can separate yourself at the bottom of the build. That may seem intuitive, but it bears repeating. Don’t overthink yourself on a player if you know you can get different elsewhere. More on that in the bullet below.
Last week in Corales, the Draft Kings $50K Drive the Green contest featured a $10,000 top prize. The winner rostered a 29%+ Detry, a 12%+ Wallace, 22% Hojgaard. 8% Stevens, 3% Chappell and 4.4% Eckroat rounded out their lineup. I say this to help draw to the fact that when you separate at the bottom, having two guys at 50-60% isn’t going to automatically disqualify your chances. Again, it seems simplistic and intuitive, but it’s good to have it illustrated.
Mid-range guy I feel pretty good about is Brendon Todd. He’s not incredibly high up the ranks in the player pool, but a lot of that is based on the fact he’s not dominating any one statistical category. It’s been about as steady as she goes, and with a top 40 finish at Arnold Palmer and a top 30 at the Players, this could be an area for him to scoot up the leaderboard further with calm, steady play in a watered down field. Doesn’t hurt that he’s second in the player pool in SG: Putting the last 16 rounds.
Not sure what to do with Hideki. Is his neck ok? Least projected to be clicked out of the top 5 names, but MC’d the Genesis & API, charges to a 5th place at Players and then WD’s the Dell. With his Augusta spot secured, is this just a work out a few kinks in the game before Georgia next week?
Tyler Duncan should not be $7,200. I absolutely will not be bothered by whatever percentage he comes in at. His last 5 starts? A 3rd at Corales, a MC at Valspar (had a disaster of a first round and fought back in the second round), a 54th at the Players, 3rd at Honda and 33rd at Genesis. He’s accurate, has outstanding ball striking and tee to green numbers and he is a very consistent putter. Has shown the ability to go low and compete and - at the risk of sounding like a broken record - with this week’s field, I don’t see him ejecting out of the tournament by Friday.
I will consider course history in a few spots throughout the year, although here I don’t think too much about it, but Ben An (Byeong hun An) has a T40 and a T7 at Valero in two of his previous three starts at the event. The only event he failed to see the weekend at in 2023 was Arnold Palmer in which he WD’d after the first round. He absolutely pounds the ball off the tee - he’s up there in average distance with Rahm, Cam Young and Cam Champ - so if his solid around the green numbers the last 16 rounds stay true to form while facing some of the least penal rough on Tour, he could give himself plenty of opportunity.
Final points regarding player pool, this Substack and plans moving forward: it helps greatly if you can share with your friends and social accounts. All of this is free until we can get a better sense of what it will be moving forward. I always plan to provide at least some level of freebies. I plan to post player pool accountability screens after cut is made to gain perspective on what we’re looking at. Look for those Friday evening/Saturday morning. I’m always open to suggestion. Let me know if there’s anything I can do better. Please subscribe - again, it’s free and it will help me get a better understanding of what this is. Plus, you’ll be notified when posts are made. Let’s go get 6/6 through. Slainte.