Cognizant Classic: Player Pool
Much slimmer pool
I initially thought there may be some wind to monitor to see if there was a worthwhile idea on split - there’s been a bit of kerfuffle on Thursday morning golfers having an easier go. Checking again at 3:30 PM Eastern, there’s been a slight uptick in the morning wind coinciding with a slight down tick in afternoon wind that I don’t believe there is a discernible difference. Friday is just going to be windy no matter what, so I don’t think it’s anything you need to play in to. Play your guys.
I’ve been wanting to make a more concerted effort to reduce the amount of golfers in the player pool so we’re not as exposed to so many wild cards. This week was a great opportunity to do that with such a tough course and specific parameters I was looking at.
We’re also at a point in the season where we’re really dialing in where golfers are currently at with their games.
But, again, the best advice I’ve ever received and what helped me cash last week even with 5/6 is “DFS is not a prediction game - it’s a peer to peer game.” Our opponents are the other folks in the contests that we enter. We have to be comfortable zigging when they zag.
From what I can tell, Rory & Byeong Hun An are the two main golfers steaming in the high teens or into 20% or more. While they both make the player pool and if you’re entering multiple lineups, you need exposure, feel free to pass over them in single entry stuff or more limited fields.
It worked well with us last week passing on Finau & Hojgaard and we will continue with that strategy.
In the more down the pricing line projected chalk, Straka, Svensson & Bezuidenhout seem to be garnering the most clicks. I think in a vacuum they’re fine, but I think a fade of Bez is perfectly fine given his moderate accuracy and poor showing at a key distance which I’ve identified/landed on as the 150-175 yard range.
While I think Straka is a strong play, obviously, I think Pavon is an outstanding pivot off of him. He is better across the board in all of the highlighted columns.
If Keith Mitchell can get past the 3-4 hole stretches he seems to have that almost eliminate him from contention, he may win again on Tour! And of course, this tournament is his only win on Tour. But he fits what we’re looking for and has a modest price tag.
Tom Hoge might be my favorite play this week. He’ll be high single to low double digit in clicks and I think that’s perfectly acceptable especially if you’re avoiding one or both of Rory & Ben An.
Ghim looks great, but he does have terrible course history and is pretty weak at the key distance. Still, the price is right, the clicks aren’t out of control & you won’t need much to pay off. If he gets top 20, you’re golden.
Carson Young looks phenomenal, but he & Akshay will be the most clicked names in that specific price range. I think either are fine depending on what you do with Rory & An. I think applying that same theory to Eric Cole is also fine because I’m guessing he comes in about third or fourth in clicks.
Berger looks really solid and was asked about his injuries and said he feels back to 100% today. It’s the first I’ve heard mention of this and I think that’s important to note. He has two top 5’s at this course. He’ll carry some clicks, but nowhere near as egregious as some of the others. I think locking in top 20/top 30 bets on him make a ton of sense as well.
It is with the biggest sigh in the world that I announce Greyson Sigg is probably in play again.
Justin Lower is a name that won’t be clicked at all (3% or less) and I think he has a terrific chance to - at minimum - make the cut for you. He’s played here once, and placed T-64. Obviously that isn’t much, but if you’re getting a $6,400 golfer that gets you 50-60ish points and allows you to build whatever you want elsewhere, you take it. His putter is my only concern, but the other areas of his game are terrific, especially stacked against the field. He has made every single cut in the 2024 season and his lowest Draft Kings points total is 59.5 points.
Billy Horschel has been inconsistent at best this year - 2/4 on 2024 cuts, with a top 20 at Sony, a middling T-41 at WM Phoenix & MC’s at AMEX & Farmers. However, he’s played here four of the past five years, made the cut every time and somehow, hilariously, has gone T-16, T-42, T-16, T-42 in order. So, if we just huff a little paint while shotgunning a 4Loko, it’s easy to predict a T-16 this year! This stuff is an easy game when you do drugs. (Don’t do drugs.)
But, in Horschel’s case, the price is right and he’s going to carry 5% or less in clicks while in the same price range as chalkier options such as Carson Young, Akshay Bhatia & Doug Ghim. Great for tournament exposure for multiple lineups and probably will go next to unclicked in single entry type events.
Good luck, let’s get 6/6 through.