CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Player Pool
I'm sensing a 1960's doo wop band name here
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This tournament is a 1960’s doo wop or rock band called Scottie & The South Koreans.
I am very smart, and funny, please hire me.
Anyway, you’re in for a birdie fest. This entire week is going to come down to how rosters handle Scottie.
PLAYER POOL
Scottie is seeing outright numbers for this tournament that haven’t been seen since Tiger and before the entire country was consumed by online sports books. It’s absolutely insane. I’ve seen him projected in DFS as high as over 50%. I have him around 40% because he’s such an obvious play, but his salary completely handicaps the rest of your lineup. The second you click him on DraftKings, you get $7,040 left per golfer. Folks are going to have to get really creative to build a competitive roster around him. Let’s say you plug in Scottie and a basement golfer at $6,000, you’re still only operating at $7,300/golfer after that. Let’s say that this is the plan for people - willing to easily accept a 4/6 or 5/6 just to play Scottie — you’re going to need to outmaneuver every where else. The whole week comes down to Scottie. If he does come in, even 30% or above — if he somehow doesn’t win, you are absolutely lapping the field by not playing him.
The next wave of golfers — Koepka, Si Woo, Spieth, Mitchell & Hisatsune are all going to carry some clicks, they’re likely all fine, but I’m most cautious about Cashmere Keith.
Jordan Smith is our clear first value play in salary, trend rank, clicks and birdie rate. His overall results haven’t jumped off the page, but the rest of the metrics are there. He’s capable of posting top 10’s/top 20’s.
Of the next wave, Brennan, Olesen & Coody — I like Coody the most out of that group, but so does the field. They’re all likely fine.
I can’t stand the expected clicks on Austin Eckroat, but that’s our guy this week. Everything lines up in the same way on the page that it lined up with Alex Smalley last week. We have the high trend rank, lower salary, moderate clicks, high birdie rate — and he’s logged a T-2 at this tournament before.
As discussed, Davis Thompson is solid. Haotong is probably fine, but he is feast or famine, so buyer beware.
I really dig Mac Meissner this week.
Wyndham Clark gives you access to a big name (deservedly or not) at a discounted price and decently low clicks - I think a lot of people will click Coody, Thorbjornsen & Sungjae in that range. There was a missed cut at the PGA for Wyndham, but he did log a T-21 at The Masters & a T-16 at RBC Heritage.
Chris Kirk will give you a made cut at $7,300 and a decent shot at a top 30-40 finish.
Sam Ryder, Zach Bauchou, Doug Ghim, Zecheng “Marty” Dou all give us great salaries, good birdie rates, strong trend ranks (save for Dou) and really solid click rates — all should be firmly in play in your sets.
Tom Kim is showing a lot of signs of life again — he’s gaining some steam, but still absolutely clickable. He also plays drums for Scottie & The South Koreans, with Sungjae on bass, Si Woo on lead guitar and backup vocals and Scottie as the lead singer.
William Mouw is likely going to give a you a made cut and be similar to what I wrote about Chris Kirk.
Matti Schmid might pick up some steam from last week, but still in the pool.
VALUE BUCKET
Much smaller value bucket this week, but all worth considering, especially given the price tags.
Really like Blanchet (four straight made cuts including last week at PGA Championship), Roy (seven straight made cuts, huge birdie rate, T-3 at Myrtle Beach two weeks ago), and Skinns (T-8 at Puerto Rico, T-30 at Valspar, T-24 at Myrtle Beach in his three PGA appearances this year).
Dumont De Chassart obviously looks good as well, but not loving his projected roster numbers. Still, should definitely be in your consideration.
Good luck, let’s get 6/6 through.