Charles Schwab Challenge: Player Pool

Light week

So, I’d like to ask a quick favor - if you have any sort of response here in the comment section or shooting me an email or telling me on Twitter (@TopherThinks) if you folks liked the Trend Table article showing the entire field or if just the player pool is sufficient. I’d really appreciate it. It’ll help me plan a little bit better moving forward. I didn’t write it this week because the numbers are slightly less than the player pool and I also just got really busy with my real job that pays me real money. Supposedly.

Anyway, we can keep it going if you folks want it, if not, it might look more like this.

Plenty of new subscribers recently, so I really want to thank each and every one of you for your continued support and reading this every week. Wasn’t the result we wanted last week, at least for me personally, but such is life.

I have made some slight adjustments within the player pool and trend table extending the scores an extra four rounds and extending the long term form used to determine trend tables an extra eight rounds in order to try and weed out massive spikes and find more consistency.

And for new readers and a reminder for the many that have been around for a while, the top half/image is usually the “safest” bets, the ones I feel strongest about. The second half/image are strong plays, but carry more risk.

Anyway, on to the player pool:

Scottie.

What an incredible bummer Straka was last week. It’s actually absurd given how well he had been playing that he MC’d, but that’s what hovering on the cut line will do to you. I think lack of distance also didn’t do him any favors. This is a track that is much better suited to his game, but the field seems to be aware of that, clicking him well into the mid teens at price point. I think if you play him with Scheffler you’ll have to find four separate pivots at 5% or less to make it work, but if you play him without Scottie, it gives you a lot more liberty to make decisions, especially if you skip the $10,000 and above range.

Glover had a disastrous PGA, but people still aren’t too shy of him, but they prefer Eckroat in that price range. He’s likely fine.

Collin will be one of the three chalkiest players along with Scottie & Harris English (holy hell is that certainly a “one of these things is not like the other”). But he’s fine.

Si Woo, Keegan, Hoge are all low double digits and all fine.

Rai looks phenomenal on paper. He’ll be clicked a ton with Scottie teams (shout-out to Cody Main) so make sure if you go that route that you’re finding differentiating pieces to round out the rest of your lineup, all needing to be in the single digit range to make it all work cumulatively.

Love me some Kevin Yu this week as a boom/bust guy. His finishes are all over the map, but his peripherals are there, which is nice. Nobody is playing him, either. Please do keep in mind, I said boom OR bust. He’s going to finish top 10 or MC.

Nate Lashley is another boom/bust kind of guy. He had turned it on in late March into April, but has had two “meh” performances since.

Also pretty big on Lee Hodges and his click rate is completely reasonable, mid to high single digits.

You can play two versions of the name Grayson in Grayson Murray & Greyson Sigg. You can also chug a half bottle of Grey Goose on Friday while you have a cut sweat with both of these idiots. (They’re both fine and click rates are both fine and they’re cheap. Knock yourself out metaphorically and also with Grey Goose.)

English is going to be wildly popular and I think he’s ok but doesn’t justify 20%+ that I’ve seen him projected at.

The peripherals and some performances by Ben Kohles are kind of nauseating, but I think he’s a great puke play this week. He’s absolutely dirt cheap and does nothing but find the fairway, which is critical here at Colonial even after the renovation.

All of Daniel Berger’s numbers suggest that he’s playing above average golf and that he should be way higher clicked than the roughly 5% he’s projecting. But the results have been terrible. He’s only made 6/10 cuts, zero top 10’s and only one top 20. However, He has made all four cuts in his past 4 events, including his highest finish of the season three weeks ago with a 13th at the CJ Cup. I think he’s an outstanding mid-price target (he’s won at Colonial before, even if it was pre-renovation) based on the fact the clicks won’t be there. It could be a get there before the field catches on.

Ben Martin remains in play as a favorite of this Substack.

Ghim looks like a mega value and mid range clicks. I don’t get it. Number & peripherals support him, but I will say the trend rank is accurate. Worth noting that he might be finding his groove again, making 2/3 cuts his last three events and only MC’ing the CJ Cup by one stroke (disappointing, but usually a sign that the game wasn’t suffering) and logging a 35th last week at the PGA. Coming off a top 40 at a major is always a good feeling.

Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through.