3M Open: Player Pool & Thoughts
No, different Open - we did the other one.
If you ever start feeling full of yourself, just play PGA DFS. It will humble you in ways that will make you feel like you only have Jello pudding where your brain is supposed to be.
The betting article maintained it’s major heat, picking Xander to win at +1400 (most other books had him at +1100) and I had a really nice Sungjae ladder that allowed me to break even because I somehow convinced myself in DFS that Collin would win, not Xander, and built a team around him and I picked the worst of the weather split by a mile. Jello pudding brains.
Anyway, we’re onto the 3M Open in Minnesota, another TPC course that is surrounded by water. The field is the same type as your Rocket Mortgages & John Deere’s of the world - a couple of bigger recognizable names, some big time youngsters and then a whole lot of nondescript PGA players fighting to keep their cards as the season winds down.
Word from Minnesota is that the course is extremely soft and will play slightly longer than expected, but it’s still pretty vanilla in length comparative to some courses they’ve played. Due to the water everywhere, I honed in on more accurate players because one or two offline shots that find the drink can lead to big numbers that can sewer a made cut or a high finish.
In my review of prior stats as well, I uncovered that there is a tremendous correlation of strong scramblers not only making the cut, but having top 20 type success as well even between only the cut makers vs. the top 20 finishers.
I really like accurate players who are strong ball strikers and good scramblers. Solid tee to green players and solid putters are a plus. Please note: it’s still early-ish in my eyes (Wednesday morning) to be completely honed in on a weather split, but it’s worth noting that that Thursday has held steady as a relatively benign weather day across the board, but Friday afternoon winds and gusts are supposed to rise substantially. Unless you’re playing in Scotland, usually I don’t lend too much credence to it, but it seems drastic enough in my amateur meteorologist career (all meteorologists are amateurs, heyoooo) that if I’m torn on a player, specifically a value type as well, I may lean Thursday PM-Friday AM in split.
No shock to see big Tony Finau at the top. He’s won here before and was on an epic heater before succumbing to the bad weather split in Scotland and ejecting from the Open. I don’t think you’ll have to worry that much here, a place he knows well. He will, unequivocally, be the chalk of the week, however.
Clanton continues his immensely impressive play and is here on sponsor exemption. He’s forfeited close to a million dollars in earnings by playing as an amateur this summer. Will someone please get this kid a PGA Tour card?
Akshay will be chalky, too, but for obvious reasons. Hoge is a terrific iron player and his putter should be able to cope with the easier TPC greens. They’re both on the “wrong” side of the weather draw, but for the more “household” type names, I’m not as concerned about where they’re at.
A lot to like about Billy Horschel, the very last name cut from The Open pool that I’m still kicking myself for.
Nick Dunlap just won last week at the Barracuda. The field toughens, obviously, and he has some serious scrambling issues and is middle of the pack accuracy wise. He’s low double digits and an awkward price point, so I’m not exactly chasing him.
Adam Hadwin got the bad end of the weather draw in Scotland and while he was still fighting for the cut on Friday, the back 9 hit him harder than the security guard last year. I don’t know. He’ll be mid teens, seems ok enough, but the scrambling rank and draw have me slightly paused. Plus, he’s 37th in FedEx points, so he’s not in any danger of missing the playoffs. Will this week get his full attention?
Burns, I think, is one of the better plays at the top of the board. He’s likely to have a sour taste in his mouth after a Sunday 80 plummeted him down the Open leaderboard. He’s been playing good golf of late and gets the PM-AM draw.
Chan Kim, Jhonattan Vegas & Neal Shipley all kind of fall in the same category for me - really solid peripherals, very concerned about their putters, terrible scramblers (with Shipley TBD on that). Here’s where I think the draw does start to matter, when you get into the weeds on the talent level and you want any advantage you can get. Kim & Vegas both have the PM-AM draw, Shipley does not.
Keegan doesn’t look like he’s going to steam and I had another friend who also does golf writing/analysis say to me, from a feel standpoint, Keegan knows the spots he can take advantage of and will be motivated for a high finish after a MC at The Open shortly after he was named Ryder Cup captain. It all makes sense from a narrative perspective. I like every one of his peripherals as well, save scrambling.
I think Ghim is a very solid play and with this course being one of the top 5 easiest courses to gain strokes in putting, his biggest weakness comparative to the field is mitigated. A lot of what I just said I also echo for Mac Meissner, the next name on the list.
Dahmen, on paper, appears to be a really solid play. Not as many people playing him as I imagined.
I like Greyserman a lot too.
Absolutely love Ben Silverman this week. He hasn’t missed a cut in almost three months and has placed a top 40 in all seven tournaments since his last MC and every peripheral is there. He’s also direct leverage off of chalk bomb Eckroat.
The book is pretty much out on Sahith. Immensely talented risk taker that can get wild. His biggest appeal is currently how many people who want to play him, which isn’t much sandwiched around Finau, Burns & Akshay. Folks I know on the ground there are also telling us he’s working with a new putter and different putting grips as well. It’s interesting to say the least. He’s missed the cut every time he’s played here.
Svensson makes a lot of sense to me this week in every aspect. His weak putter can be mitigated and the rest of his game works very nicely around here. He has moderately positive course history and is right on the cut line for the playoffs at 79th in FedEx Cup standings, so he knows he needs to giddy up & go now.
Grillo has excellent, excellent, excellent course history here. Low double digits, a PM Thursday start.. could be worth a look in an awkward price range.
Blair played really well here last year and nobody is playing him. I don’t like his draw for the cheap value players, but there isn’t a ton of value on the board this week. I think he’s fine.
I wonder if Lawrence catches any steam from his Open performance. Seems like a solid play! I’m only seeing mid single digits right now, along with the good side of the draw.
Lee Hodges ran away with this championship last year, so it’s a place you know he feels comfortable at with good vibes. Low double digits.
I think Mav McNealy is a really good leverage piece, but his play has gone south recently. Which is probably why he’s a good leverage piece.
Eckroat or Eck-goat as we call him here is going to be an absolute chalk bomb. Closing in on 20%. I’m fine not chasing chalk at this level, and his scrambling leaves a lot to be desired, even if his bad putter can be somewhat mitigated.
The rest of the listed golfers are kind of sure, why not, but I really, really, really like Henrik Norlander. Only $500 off the salary floor, he’s made three straight cuts, has the right side of the weather draw and matches most of what this course is asking him to do. Has made 2/3 cuts here at the 3M and really needs to hammer the gas pedal to keep his card (15 spots out of the 125 at this moment.)
Good luck - let’s get 6/6 through!